Nationals took Game 2, but the Dodgers still make it out of the Nation’s Capital with a series split, giving themselves a chance to take the series at home with a couple of wins. With the series now narrowed to a best of three, Los Angeles has home field advantage, but will have to overcome a southpaw—at tough feat given the dimensions of this team—to take the series lead.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
These teams won’t have a day off to travel after the rain pushed back Game 2, but that shouldn’t be an advantage for either team. Baseball’s regular season has teams playing every day, including after long travel, but it’s still a cross country trip so there could be some impact.
The change in scenery, however, may have a substantial impact. The Dodgers have been a different team at home than on the road. They were able to steal a game in Washington despite a .469 winning percentage on the road. At home, they went 53-28. That’s a .654 winning percentage.
The Nationals’ home/road splits aren’t nearly as defined as Los Angeles’ so that mitigates things to some extent, but look for the Dodgers to get a boost from returning to home to narrow the National’s advantage in terms of momentum following their win.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Based solely on the total numbers for each starter, the Dodgers have the advantage in the pitching department in Game 3 as Gio Gonzalez toes the rubber for Washington against the Dodgers’ Kenta Maeda.
Gonzalez finished the season 11-11 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.342 WHIP in 177.1 innings. He walked three per nine innings and saw his home run rate jump to its highest level since his age 23 season with Oakland in 2009.
The Nationals lost the last three starts made by the 30-year old southpaw. He went 1-2 in his last five starts with a 7.43 ERA. After a very strong first eight starts, he pitched to a 5.58 ERA over his last 24 starts.
The numbers are certainly a cause for concern against the Dodgers, but Gonzo did pitch six one-run innings at Dodger Stadium back in July. He also matches up favorably against them given their lineup stacked with left-handed bats. Gonzalez has pronounced splits, allowing a .633 OPS against lefties and a .756 OPS against right-handers. Los Angeles hit a combined .213 against southpaws. Justin Turner and Yasiel Puig are the team’s biggest threats from the right side.
With the matchup unfavorable for the Dodgers’ bats, they’ll need the pitching to keep them in the game and that’s just what Maeda has done all season long.
He pitched to a 16-11 record, 3.48 ERA and 1.139 WHIP in his rookie campaign. He also struck out more than a batter per innings.
The 28-year old right-hander out of Japan was the Dodgers’ most reliable starter given their injuries, but he was never one to give the team length. In fact, he pitched more than six innings just once in the last two months. His highest pitch count was 107.
Maeda also allowed five runs in 2.2 innings in his final start and has had a significant gap between starts given his last start was October 2 against the Giants.
The layoff may actually help Maeda who is used to a six-man rotation coming over from Japan.
Maeda also hasn’t faced Washington and that’s usually a benefit for the pitcher as it’s hard to gauge the movement on pitches from video and scouting reports. The National’s bats will need to adjust quickly.
LIVE BETTING
The Dodgers got just five innings from Clayton Kershaw in Game 1 and four and a third from Rich Hill in Game 2, putting a lot of strain on the bullpen early in this series. Washington got one more inning from Max Scherzer in Game 1, but also had to go to the pen in the fifth on Sunday.
Washington and Los Angeles were ranked first and second in baseball in bullpen ERA over the course of the regular season, posting a 3.35 and 3.37 ERA respectively. The Nats, however, may have the slight edge in the pen given they replaced a struggling Jonathan Papelbon with Mark Melancon midseason.
The Nationals bullpen has slightly outpitched the Dodgers in this series, holding Los Angeles scoreless over seven and two-thirds innings. The Dodgers’ pen did surrender a run, but just one.
With these pens getting a lot of work, there is a threat that they will be a bit more restricted on Monday without the off day, but both pens are still lock down enough that the game should be won or lost in the first six innings.
QUICK PICK
The makeup of the Dodgers’ roster gives the Nationals a real chance to take advantage of their lack of right-handed bats. Even so, Gonzalez does still need to execute his pitches, but he has a bit more wiggle room with Los Angeles’ struggles against southpaws.
Bank on Washington getting a good enough start from Gonzalez and handing the ball to the National’s strong bullpen with the lead. Washington’s bullpen showed on Sunday that they can hold the lead.
Maeda meanwhile can be counted on for a good start, too, but given the platoon mismatch and their solid road record, I’m giving the slight edge to Washington to carry the momentum from their Game 2 victory and grab a 2-1 series lead in Los Angeles.
MLB Odds: Nationals 5, Dodgers 4
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! First pitch for the game between the Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers is scheduled for Monday, October 10, 2016, at 4:08 p.m. ET at Dodgers Stadium. The contest will be televised nationally on FS1.
