The mighty Cubs are the heavy favorites to win the World Series and they started their pursuit off right, with a win in Game 1 of the division series, but it was a lot narrower than one might have thought, ending 1-0.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Cubs won Game 1. Who is surprised?
Chicago hasn’t had many challenges in what’s felt like a very easy season for them. Sure, they had a rough spell at a time, but it was short lived and the Cubs rolled from there.
The Giants winning Game 1 could have provided that pressure. Instead, the Cubs once again are in control.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
There will be a couple familiar faces on the mound in Wrigley Field, one of them will be in a Giants uniform.
Former Cubs ace Jeff Samardzija returns to Wrigley to start Game 2. The 31-year old right-hander was acquired in the offseason as a free agent and has put together a strong—if inconsistent—series going 12-11 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 32 starts.
Samardzija has had a rebound year after a terrible 2015 with the White Sox, but he’s actually walking more batters this year and his home run rate is still high with 24 bombs allowed in his 203.1 innings.
The righty has been spotty all year long with some remarkable performances and some bad ones, too. His last three have been good, all quality starts, but a 1-2 team record even with three runs in 19.2 innings.
Opposing Samardzija in Game 2 will be the NL’s ERA title winner: Kyle Hendricks.
Hendricks did his best Jake Arrieta impersonation in 2016, coming out of seemingly nowhere to have a Cy Young caliber year. He ended up 16-8 with a 2.13 ERA and a 0.979 WHIP.
The 26-year old right-hander isn’t an over powering pitcher. He instead relies on pinpoint command and excellent movement to force weak contact. That’s something he’s been exceptional at all year.
Now, while he’s not known as a strikeout guy, he did strikeout 170 batters on the year so he can get the big K when it’s needed.
His last start aside, Hendricks got better and better as the season progressed. He pitched to a 1.68 second half ERA and was 9-2 in 14 starts.
Until the Reds touched him up for four on October 2, Hendricks wen 10 starts allowing two or fewer runs. He’s allowed four or more runs just three times all year and has never allowed five runs in 31 appearances including 30 starts.
Hendricks has allowed one run in 5.1 innings in his only start against the Giants back in May. He gave up three hits in that game.
LIVE BETTING
Chicago is as balanced of a team as you can find. They have three Cy Young caliber starters atop their rotation, a bullpen anchored by Aroldis Chapman who is set up by Hector Rondon, a top quality closer in his own right and an offense that can compete with anyone.
That offense was quiet on Friday save for a solo shot in the eighth inning off the bat of Javier Baez.
Baez himself is an excellent testament to Chicago’s immense depth. He’s one of nine batters with at least 10 home runs and to compliment the pop, there are four different Cubs that get on base more than 38-percent of the time.
Game 1 already highlighted some of San Francisco’s weaknesses. The Giants got an amazing start from Johnny Cueto, but he allowed one run and that was too much.
San Francisco tumbled into the postseason on blow saves in the bullpen and an offense that just couldn’t score enough.
Bruce Bochy didn’t have to expose that bullpen on Friday, though it is an improved unit with Sergio Romo back in the closer role. His lack of offense was exposed.
Even to get into the division series, the offense really didn’t show up. Sure, Conor Gillaspie had a big home run, but outside of that, there wasn’t much there. Yes, the team played Noah Syndergaard and yes it was Jon Lester on the bump in Game 1 of this series, but the Cubs have ace after ace to throw at the Giants and they face yet another ace on Saturday. Can the Giants handle it and put runs on the board?
QUICK PICK
The formula that allowed the Giants to go from Wild Card team to World Series champion in 2014—and led to World Series victories in 2010 and 2012—doesn’t apply to this group. Those teams used good starting, a great bullpen and just enough offense to get the job done.
That just enough offense came through on Wednesday, but not on Friday. That bullpen wasn’t over-exposed behind Cueto or Bumgarner, but it will play a bigger role behind Samardzija.
Look for the Cubs offense to put up a few runs against the former North Sider and then build some insurance runs off the bullpen. Meanwhile, you can count on Hendricks to bounce back from his season finale to hold the Giants to just a couple of runs before Chapman closes the door.
MLB Odds: Cubs 6, Giants 2
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