Wow. Just when the Cubs looked like the magically story could be coming to a gruesome end, they put up a huge dominating victory to once again show why this was the best team in baseball throughout the regular season. Can the Dodgers regain the series lead heading back to Chicago or will the Cubs hang on to the momentum and inch within a game of the World Series?
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Trailing in the series by a game, the Cubs bats finally came alive in Game 4. Most importantly, Anthony Rizzo broke out in a big way.
Chicago had been winning on the strength of its pitching and an occasional big inning for that Cubs magic, but even that occasion inning wasn’t coming in the last two games, both shutouts at the hands of the Dodgers. Then, along game Wednesday’s offensive onslaught. It was sustained over a few innings, against a few different pitchers and involved everyone in the lineup, not just a few couple players.
If the Cubs’ behemoth of an offense is stirring, that’s bad news for a Dodgers’ club that just doesn’t have the depth and fire power to compete; and doesn’t figure to have Kershaw on the hill to ice the Cubbies back down until Game 6.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
We are back to our Game 1 arms on Thursday with Jon Lester starting for the Cubs and Kenta Maeda on the bump for the Dodgers. This time, however, the game is in Los Angeles.
Lester’s 2016 postseason has been one of dominance so far. In two games, he’s allowing one run and nine hits in 14 innings, including holding the Dodgers to one run in Game 1 through six innings, easily outdueling his counterpart in Game 5.
The veteran also has experience in the postseason that gives him a clear added advantage over hurler experiencing the MLB season for the first time.
The veteran southpaw remains a tough matchup for the Dodgers who have a very left-handed centric lineup. The 32-year old held lefties to a .540 OPS this season, allowing only three home runs and a .240 OBP.
As for Maeda, he’s been the Dodgers’ most reliable pitcher as injuries have plagued some other arms, but he’s in uncharted territory and it’s been showing in his postseason performances.
Dave Roberts has a short leash on the righty and he only lasted four innings in Game 1, allowing three runs on four hits and three walks. Against the Nationals in the NLDS he was even worse, lasting just three innings and giving up four runs.
Maeda has now thrown four straight short outings where he’s failed to record more than four innings. He’s allowed at least three runs in each of those games. Even before that, however, when Maeda was going well he wasn’t one to give the Dodgers length. He last pitched at least six innings on September 11 and pitched into the seventh once since July.
Maeda’s recent string of bad outings is concerning, but the streak of short outings is more of a concern with the Dodgers’ bullpen having been heavily leveraged in Game 4’s blowout.
LIVE BETTING
Errors were all over in Game 4 and defense could become a key factor should we once again find ourselves in a much more contested battle on Thursday.
In total, the teams gave up six errors. The two squads had combined to commit just a single errors in the first three contests.
Errors were a bit of an issues for the Cubs from time to time in the regular season with Chicago committing 21 more errors than the Dodgers. Heading into the Wednesday’s showdown, the Cubs had five postseason errors to Los Angeles’ three.
Sloppy play could be a sign of such a lopsided affair, but it’s crucial that the Dodgers play a crisp, clean game given their statistical disadvantage head-to-head with Chicago—at least based on regular season offensive and pitching numbers.
QUICK PICK
The Dodgers had a chance in this series, but after letting the Cubs grab back the momentum so easily on Wednesday, that chance is slipping away.
In Game 5, the Cubs are going with their veteran ace with the split advantage over the Dodgers lineup while Los Angeles—baring any last minute change of plans—will turn to a starter that’s had a string of bad outings and hasn’t been able to provide much length at all.
The Cubs’ advantage on the mound is only magnified when you consider Chicago’s offense has figured out how to swing the bats again.
Much of the Cubs’ earlier offensive woes were mental, but a big game like this with a number of underperformers finding their stroke has a way of getting a team to break out of slumps. Look for the offense to handle Maeda again and the Cubs back end of the bullpen to take care of business behind Lester and lock down the win and the series advantage.
MLB Odds: Cubs 6, Dodgers 3
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