
One of the best pitching matchups of the season is set to go on ESPN Monday night when Stephen Strasburg leads the Washington Nationals into Chavez Ravine to square off against Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Nationals hit the road for their current road trip off a huge extra inning win that saw them take the series from the Cubs. It was huge for their self-confidence after getting swept in Wrigley earlier in the season. With a get-well series to be played in Petco over the next four days, it’s likely they’ll get this extended 10 game road trip started off on the right foot. As it is, Dusty Baker’s squad has won 21 of its 34 played road games ($533), and is up $834 overall for baseball bettors.
Now almost halfway through the 2016 season, the Dodgers continue to be one of the bigger underachievers in the sport. With Don Mattingly finally getting a Marlin team that underachieved the last couple seasons to play better than .500 ball, one has to wonder if it was truly him that was the reason LA struggled to really get going the last couple seasons. At this point in the season, Dodgers brass and players need to start looking at themselves in the mirror. As it is, Los Angeles now trails the Giants by six games in the NL East and they’re looking up to both the Cardinals and Mets in the wild card standings.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
It’s been widely known for years that Stephen Strasburg possessed the stuff to be mentioned in the same breath as the best of the best. His main bugaboo has been being able to stay healthy. So far so good on that front in 2016 with him putting forth the most dominant first half of his seven-year career. Through 14 starts, he stands a perfect 10-0 and has only given up 75 hits through 93 innings and tallied a dominant 118:24 K/BB ratio. He’s averaging 11.4 K/9 innings and has been at his best on the road where he’s 5-0 and allowed a grand total of 9 ER through just over 38 innings of work.
Clayton Kershaw enters his fifteenth start of the season pitching like a man possessed. Seriously, he had to sell his soul to the devil since it’s nowhere near this easy to dominate professional hitters like he has. Each of his last nine starts have been of quality, and he logged three complete shutouts in that stretch. Over his last 21 innings, he’s conceded just 13 hits and 4 ER and will take to the bump at home for the eighth time having just led his club to road wins at San Francisco and Arizona. The Dodgers have won six of his seven home starts and he’s 9-2 with a 2.09 ERA and .187 batting average against through 12 career starts against the Nats.
LIVE BETTING
The “Strosborg” has gotten an average of 6.7 runs per game to work with this season. With that the case, it hardly comes as a shock to see the over 12-2 when he’s led the team into battle.
On the flipside, Kershaw has only received an average of 4.4 runs per game to work with. Likewise, it makes sense that 10 of his 13 games combined to stay under the total with a pair of pushes.
One of these trends will have to give in this one, and as good as both starting pitchers have been to date, I can’t help but think it will be Strasburg’s. Runs should be hard to come by in this one, especially early, so give the first five innings under a run and see if we can double up by also taking the full game under.
QUICK PICK
This will no doubt me must-see TV with Strasburg and Kershaw squaring off against one another in front of a nationally televised audience. With each looking to outduel the other in this heavyweight bout, I can’t help but think it’s going to be an extra-long night for both offenses. We’ve seen a number of 5.5s on the board this MLB season, and it won’t surprise me in the least if oddsmakers line this one in that range as well. Even so, I expect a low scorer so gimme a piece of that under.
MLB Odds: Nationals 3, Dodgers 2
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