Having split the first 16 head-to-head games, the Jays and Sox will have three final games to capture the season series. It all starts on Friday when the Sox host’s David Ortiz’s final regular season series at Fenway Park, looking to send him off in style.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
In terms of postseason goals, this series have far more importance to Toronto as the Sox have already clinched the divisions title and trip to the ALDS. While that could normally give the Jays an edge, the desire to send Ortiz off in style counters that a bit as the Red Sox will still be playing hard.
Boston is playing exceptionally baseball right now, too. Even after clinching, they’ve kept on winning. Heading into Tuesday, they’ve won 11 games in a row. They also topped Toronto in two out of three the last time these teams met.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Rick Porcello is lined up to make his final regular season start on Friday before likely getting the nod as the Game 1 starter in the ALDS for the Red Sox.
Porcello is the current front runner for the Cy Young Award thanks to his 22-4 record, 3.11 ERA and 0.991 WHIP in his 32 games and 217 innings.
The 27-year old right-hander is having a great year and has a league leading 6.1 strikeout to walk ratio. He’s done an excellent job limiting the free passes.
As the season has gone on, Porcello has become more and more predictable. He’s now thrown 12 straight quality starts dating back to July 29 and has 27 quality starts on the year.
Porcello has already faced Toronto four times this season and is 3-0 against the Jays, but does have a 4.50 ERA in those four starts, allowing 13 runs in 26 innings while giving up five home runs.
Looking to matchup with Porcello pitch-for-pitch is the Jays’ Marco Estrada.
Estrada had his break out season last year and despite injuries has put together a second straight strong season. He’s 9-9 overall, but has a 3.53 ERA and 1.117 WHIP in 171 innings.
Last year, Estrada was able to find success by holding the opposition to a .203 average. With a BABIP way down at .217 that seemed like a fluke, but they’re hitting .203 again this year with a .233 BABIP.
Estrada did have a sub-3 ERA well into July, but he pitched to a 4.24 ERA in July and 4.82 ERA in August. His September ERA is 4.39, but that’s down from where it was a couple starts ago.
Estrada finally looks like he’s healthy and getting back on track. He’s now delivered two straight, strong seven inning performances, holding the Mariners scoreless and allowing one hit before giving up just a single run to the Rays.
Much like Porcello, Estrada has four starts against Boston. He’s just 2-2 in those four starts, but he’s got a 3.47 ERA, allowing eighth earned runs in 23.1 innings.
LIVE BETTING
Just when the starting pitching and offense seemed to be turning the corner, the Jays have seen the bullpen struggle.
Roberto Osuna has been hittable with two rough outings in his last four apperances. Jason Grilli is struggling, too, while Joaquin Benoit is now injured after leaving the game on crutches on Monday.
The Red Sox’s bullpen has come together at the same time. Craig Kimbrel is back as one of the best closers in baseball with Koji Uehara pitching excellent baseball since returning from injury. That gives manager John Ferrell the ability to matchup some with Brad Ziegler and Robbie Ross to shorten the games.
QUICK PICK
These offenses are just ridiculous. If anyone can keep up with the stacked Red Sox’s lineup, it’s Toronto.
Both team has power for days, depth and a collection of hitters able to get on base and drive in runners in scoring position. The Sox also bring speed which isn’t a part of the Blue Jay’s team, however.
That speed may help them generate a few runs which will be crucial given the pitching matchup. Even with these two teams loaded with offense, look for a lower scoring game as these starters are very good and pitching well lately.
That said, you can count on the Sox’s offense to get things done late against the scuffling Blue Jays’ bullpen to capture the win at home in the final regular season series for David Ortiz.
MLB Odds: Red Sox 4, Blue Jays 2
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