Last year’s popular pick to make it to the World Series out of the American League, the Mariners struggled, eventually falling to a 76-86 record, well out of playoff consideration. This year, they’re often forgotten, but could surprise.
PRESEASON ODDS
The oddsmakers favor Houston and Texas in the NL West, but Seattle gets some love as well sitting at +395, ahead of both Los Angeles and Oakland. As for their chances to win the World Series, the Mariners find themselves in the middle of the pack at +3552, making them a viable sleeper team.
Seattle is slated to be just over .500 according to their win total for 2016. They’re expected to win 83. That would be a nice seven game bump from their 2015 total, but still puts them out of reach of the playoffs and behind the 87 wins secured back in 2014.
PITCHING BREAKDOWN
Seattle’s rotation pitched to a 4.17 ERA last season, ranking No. 9 in the American League. The Mariners have the talent to drastically improve upon those numbers.
The team is led by one of the game’s true aces in Felix Hernandez. In a down year by his standards, he went 18-9 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.180 WHIP over 201 2/3 innings in 2015. That was the eighth straight season of at least 200 innings, but his highest ERA since 2007.
He should break 200 innings again while taking off as much as half a point off his ERA, returning to his career norms.
To follow Hernandez, the Mariners brought back Hisashi Iwakuma after he was almost a Dodger. Injuries cost the Japanese hurler early in 2015 though he did still manage a 3.54 ERA due to his impressive 5.29 strikeout to walk ratio. A full season of him will help improve the team’s record.
In the bottom of the rotation, the team can turn to: Wade Miley, Taijuan Walker, James Paxton and Nathan Karns.
Paxton and Walker have the upside. They’ve shown flashes over the past two seasons. Walker managed a 1.196 WHIP last year, despite an inflated ERA. Paxton, on the other hand, has a career ERA of 3.14 over parts of three seasons, but hasn’t thrown more than 13 games in any one year at the big league level.
Miley is what he is, a serviceable backend guy. He thrived in Arizona and struggled in Boston. Karns proved himself last year in his first full season shot in the majors, posting a 3.67 ERA in 147 innings for the Rays.
Turning to the bullpen, Steve Cishek and Joakim Benoit were strong adds. Both have closer experience and can help nail down the backend.
HITTING BREAKDOWN
Offense is what caused the team to just miss the postseason in 2014. The addition of Nelson Cruz in the middle before last season led, in part, to bettors jumping on the Seattle bandwagon.
The Mariners ended the year still in the bottom third of the league with 656 runs. Cruz did provide the expected power and the team ranked fifth in long balls, but their OBP was .311.
One of the issues was Robinson Cano. The second baseman wasn’t himself in the first half last year and by the time he bounced back to form, the Mariners were out of it. Look for Cano—provided he can stay healthy—to team up with Cruz and Kyle Seager to form that formidable middle of the order the team was looking for last year.
New GM, Jerry Dipoto, also helped address the lack of speed and OBP on this team in the offseason.
Catcher was a black hole so he signed Chris Iannetta and traded for Steve Clevenger, both more proven bats behind the dish than Mike Zunino and his .174 average.
In the outfield, Nori Aoki was brought in to be a table setter to compliment the youngster at short: Ketel Marte.
KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH
Keep an eye on the players playing in the center of this infield. Robinson Cano’s first half struggles last year prevented the offense from taking shape and the Mariners spun out of contention early. His .926 OPS from the second half is what they need from the beginning.
Cano’s double-play partner up the middle is also a key to this team. Ketel Marte is just 22-years old, but he’ll be handed the shortstop job after Dipoto dealt Brad Miller to the Rays.
Marte has speed, the ability to get on base and a chance to be a big table setter for this order. He had a strong showing last year in 57-games with a .753 OPS.
FINAL THOUGHTS AND ANALYSIS
This team was oversold in 2015 and after bettors were jaded by a rough go last year, the Mariners are now overlooked.
Seattle could be a really good team if Paxton and Walker can take steps forward in the rotation and if Cano can avoid a first half slump.
Looking for a sleeper team in the American League? This may be the one. On paper they’re still behind the Rangers and Astros, but they could turn things around in a hurry with the right blend of health and a little luck.
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