Dropping two of three against Los Angeles and then getting swept in a four game series against the Red Sox effectively eliminated the Yankees from postseason consideration, but New York still has plenty of interesting matchups and influence on the postseason picture, including in Sunday’s battle between the Yankees and the current top Wild Card seed Blue Jays.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Toronto has won nine of the first 15 head-to-head game against the Yankees this year, but New York swept the Jays in their last series.
Prior to winning the series in Seattle, the Jays had been playing poor baseball, winning just five of 16 games, but the Seattle series, a day game on Wednesday and an off day on Thursday should put the Jays in excellent position to host—and beat New York. After all, the Yankees are a strong home team, but well below .500 away from the Bronx.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Michael Pineda is expected to toe the rubber on Sunday and he’ll have a stable of bullpen arms ready to go after him.
Pineda hasn’t pitched more than 5.1 innings in September and has pitched fewer than five full innings in three of his four September starts as Joe Girardi has made use of his expanded roster.
The 27-year old right-hander continues to be perplexing. He’s dominant enough to strikeout 11 Rays in 5.1 innings in his last start, but is hittable enough to have a .782 opponents OPS.
Pineda gets a lot of swings and misses, but he also allows plenty of hits as a result of an elevated BABIP at .346, but that’s not actually out of character for Pineda. He’s got good stuff, but when batters are able to get the bat on the ball, they square him up well.
Sure, he’s struck out 195 batters in 165.2 innings, but he’s also allowed 24 home runs. The long ball can hurt Pineda and the Jays can hit the ball a long ways, particularly in the Rogers Centre.
Overall, Pineda has actually pitched quite well against Toronto this year in two starts and has pitched to 3.25 ERA against Toronto in his career.
Meanwhile, the Jays’ rotation is less clear. Aaron Sanchez has been worked back into the mix after a bit of rest. He starts Wednesday with the entire Yankee series still unannounced.
If Francisco Liriano stays in the rotation even with Sanchez added back in, then Marcus Stroman will be in line. Otherwise, it would be Marco Estrada’s turn.
Estrada is having the much better season though they both are 9-9 based on the win-loss records.
The 33-year old right-hander has a 3.62 EWRA and 1.128 WHIP compared to Stroman’s 4.50 ERA and 1.305 WHIP. Estrada had been struggling in his last few starts with back issues, but looked really good against Seattle on Monday throwing seven scoreless innings of one-hit ball.
Stroman’s season has been a disappointment after coming back from injury last year to be the team’s most reliable pitcher down the stretch and in the postseason. His FIP shows he’s been a bit unlucky, but it’s not all luck.
He has allowed three runs or fewer in each start in September, only one of those lasting fewer than six innings. Still, he’s lost all four of those starts and the Jays are just 2-7 as a team in his last nine outings although he does have a respectable 3.46 ERA in that time.
LIVE BETTING
Playfully called the Baby Bombers, the Yankees, led by rookie Gary Sanchez, burst onto the scene in the later part of the year.
Sanchez himself already ranks fifth on the Yankees with his 17 home runs despite playing in just 42 games. He’s batting .327 with a 1.109 OPS and has 28 total extra base hits, that’s more than one every other game.
Sanchez’s production has dropped some after a red hot start, but he’s still hitting well. The rest of the team, however: not so much.
Since the start of September, the team’s offense has begun to revert back to the norm from the beginning of the year, scoring just 66 runs in the first 18 games of the month. Sanchez is swinging well, but he’s the only one on the team with a OPS+ of 100 or better—except for Billy Butler and Mason Williams who have combined for just 27 at bats.
The Yankees aren’t the only team with the offense going cold. The Jays have scored just two more runs than them this month.
Toronto, obviously, has the better—more powerful—lineup. But Josh Donaldson is hitting .157 this month with one homer. Troy Tulowitzki is 4-for-24 over his last seven games. Jose Bautista has a sub-.700 OPS in September with only one home run.
QUICK PICK
Regardless of Stroman or Estrada, the Jays have the pitching advantage over Pineda. Either one could go deeper into the game.
As for the bullpens, the Yankees have Dellin Betances and Adam Warren and Tyler Clippard have done their jobs since coming back to the team in pinstripes, but with only five innings likely from Pineda, they’ll need more than that.
Meanwhile, the Jays bullpen is shallow, too, but shouldn’t be nearly as exposed. Roberto Osuna, Jason Grilli and Joaquin Benoit can close this thing down after a quality start.
The Jays are at home and still have the better offense even if the last month’s worth of production doesn’t back that up. Look for a home run or two to win this for Toronto, but beware of taking the over on the run total as each offense has been struggling too much to count on a high scoring affair.
MLB Odds: Blue Jays 5, Yankees 3
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