The Cubs are the talk of baseball and the Wild Card games have intrigue, but if you’re a fan of pitching, it’s hard to find a better game than the opener between these two division winners.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Dodgers are 5-1 against the Nationals on the year, but Los Angeles has only outscored Washington by five total runs in those six games.
Los Angeles should have plenty of confidence heading into the series based on the head-to-head record of these teams, but they’ve skidded into the postseason losing five of their last six games to the Padres and Giants. Ramping back up may be difficult for the Dodgers while the Nationals did a better job of ending the season on a strong note, managing to capture home field advantage.
That home field is nice for the Nats, but is even more important considering the Dodgers are a below-.500 team away from home.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
This is the type of pitching matchup that makes the postseason so wonderful: Clayton Kershaw against Max Scherzer.
Kershaw came back to make five starts after an absence of more than two months and quickly returned to form, throwing 28 innings and allowing just four earned runs following his injury. He also only walked two batters.
On the year, the 28-year old southpaw is 12-4 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.725 WHIP in 149 innings. He’s also walked just 11 total batters and has an astronomically high 15.64 strikeout to walk ratio.
There’s little doubt in most minds that Kershaw is the best regular season pitcher in baseball when healthy. He’s already nabbed three Cy Young Awards and a MVP. He’s absolutely filthy, but he’s also been less than stellar in the postseason.
Having started 10 postseason games and pitched in three others, he’s just 2-6 when it matters most, pitching to a 4.59 ERA. St. Louis in particularly has had his number in the playoffs so he’ll be happy to see a different opponent.
Washington is as good an opponent as anyone given his 10-2 record against them in his career along with his 2.02 ERA and 0.888 WHIP in 89 innings.
While Scherzer’s career hasn’t been as completely dominant as Kershaw’s in the regular season, he’s been better in the playoffs with a 4-3 mark and a 3.73 ERA.
Of course, his 2016 numbers aren’t too shabby. Thanks to the injury to Kershaw he is positioned well to win some postseason hardware with his 19-7 record, 2.82 ERA and 0.940 WHIP. That WHIP leads the league as does his 277 strikeouts and 5.13 strike out to walk ratio. Yes, that ratio pales in comparison to Kershaw’s but he’s got the innings and the Dodgers’ southpaw does not.
LIVE BETTING
The Dodgers have the best bullpen in baseball based on ERA, but there are still reasons to be concerned building up to Kenley Jansen, but with Kershaw and Scherzer pitching, the likelihood that the middle of the bullpens will come into play is slim; that is unless this game extends into extra innings.
Look for both starters to go deep into the game. If that’s not the case, that’s a terrible sign for that starter’s team. Don’t look for a comeback story in Game 1 of this matchup.
As for what to expect from the pens, of course, Jansen is a beast, but the acquisition of Mark Melancon by the Nationals was huge at the deadline. The move allowed the team to release Jonathan Papelbon who wasn’t getting the job done. Melancon meanwhile came in with a 1.88 ERA and 16 saves in 28.2 innings.
If one starter is able to go deeper than the other, look for that team to get the win because neither the starters nor the closers will be easy to score on.
Speaking of scoring, both offenses have some nice depth, but the recent loss of Wilson Ramos by Washington is a hard pill for the Nationals to swallow. Jose Lobaton can handle the pitchers, but the extra offense will be missed.
QUICK PICK
Washington is at home and the Dodgers are a losing team away from Los Angeles, but can you really bet against Kershaw? In the postseason you can.
Max Scherzer isn’t too shabby either and he doesn’t have any injury concerns lingering over his head.
On a team that includes Daniel Murphy posting a .987 OPS and Bryce Harper, it was Scherzer that led the team in WAR and he’ll be the one to lead the team to the win on Friday.
Until Kershaw can prove he can win in the postseason the same way he can in the regular season there will be a cloud over his head. Expect a close game and a low scoring game, but Washington gets enough to inch out a victory at home against a Dodgers team that skidded to the finish line.
MLB Odds: Nationals 3, Dodgers 2
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! First pitch for the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals is scheduled for Friday, October 7, 2016, at TBD p.m. ET at Nationals Park. The contest will be televised nationally on FS1 and MLB Network.
