In the second to last game of the regular season, the Giants and Dodgers will meet in yet another rivalry matchup with the Dodgers getting polished and ready for the division series while San Francisco is likely to still be making their push for the Wild Card.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
San Francisco’s second half swoon has hurt bettors who’ve back Bruce Bochy’s team.
We saw the Giants play to the best record in the first half and it’s hard to believe the difference. Nevertheless, the team is now at a total moneyline of -$1,042, the third worse figure in the league.
Of course, the Dodgers haven’t been the most reliable bet this year either, but have a total moneyline much closer to the positives.
The Dodgers also have a winning record in the second half at 39-27, but they are a couple games under .500 on the road, giving San Fran a little bit of a statistical edge in that category.
Overall, these two teams head into their series netted up at eight wins a piece head-to-head in the season showdown.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Talk about mismatch. With Madison Bumgarner pitching on Friday we miss out on yet another rematch of him and Clayton Kershaw. Instead, Kershaw will toe the rubber for the Dodgers with an unidentified starter for the Giants; likely Albert Suarez.
When it comes to Kershaw, we all know the story: the best pitcher in baseball, suffered an injury and has returned to form, working back to seven innings of shutout ball in his last start.
The restrictions should be off for Kershaw who will likely go deep into this game, but there may still be some desire to limit the work with the NLDS less than a week away.
Overall, the three time Cy Young Award winner has some of the best rate stats of his career. Even though he’s made just 20 starts, he’s 12-3 with a 1.65 ERA and 0.711 WHIP in 142 innings. He’s also producing a 16.8 strikeout to walk ratio with 168 strikeouts to just 10 walks all year. Since returning from his injury, Kershaw is 1-1 with a 0.86 ERA and 0.619 WHIP in four starts spanning 21 innings.
The southpaw shouldn’t have any issues keeping the Giants offense at bay as San Francisco has shown problems scoring against far lesser pitchers.
As for Suarez, the rookie right-hander has been a serviceable fill-in in the rotation, but he doesn’t offer much depth, leaving the Giants’ to rely on a bullpen that’s been anything but reliable.
He’s pitched more than five innings just three times all year, the last time coming at the beginning of July. Since August 27, six consecutive appearances have been starts, all five innings for less.
Overall, Suarez is 3-5 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.310 WHIP in 84 innings. He’s a reverse splits guy and has pitched better against lefties than righties which is good considering the amount of left-handed bats in the Dodgers’ order.
Interestingly, despite sharing a division, this will be Suarez’s first appearance against Los Angeles. Kershaw, on the flip side, has dominated the Giants—much like every other team he faces—going 18-7 in 35 games with a 1.58 ERA and 0.800 WHIP spread over 256.1 innings.
LIVE BETTING
With the second half slide continuing and Eduardo Nunez sidelined for a few days, the desperation is clear for the Giants in their latest acquisition. With only a handful of games left, San Fran has added Gordon Beckham to help at third despite his ineligibility to play in the postseason and his free agent status at the end of the year.
The fact that a few games of Beckham would be seen as a worthwhile venture is quite telling about the state of the Giants’ offense. They are near the bottom of scoring against this month with 96 runs in 25 games. Since the All-Star break, they’ve scored fewer runs than any other team in baseball.
To expect Beckham to make much difference is foolish, however. A more encouraging sign is the 12 runs scored against Colorado on Tuesday. That was just a couple days following nine runs against San Diego.
Home runs by Buster Posey and Hunter Pence on Tuesday were great signs as were the multi-hit games up and down the lineup, particularly the seven combined hits by Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford.
While there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic about a long overdue turnaround in the Giants’ offense, Kershaw is the perfect antidote to that for the Dodgers. San Fran, meanwhile, will have to hope Los Angeles saves him for the postseason and turns things over to the bullpen early. There are some solid pitchers in the pen, too, but the bridge to Kenley Janssen is vulnerable.
Speaking of vulnerable bullpens, the Giants bullpen has been bad. They’re lost. Santiago Casilla has been unseated as closer, Javier Lopez isn’t the pitcher he once was and while Hunter Strickland has the velocity to succeed, his movement and control makes him hittable in high leverage situations.
QUICK PICK
Yes, the Giants’ offense has shown recent signs of life, but topping no-names for Colorado and San Diego is different from beating up on Kershaw.
Look for the Dodgers to give Kershaw six or seven innings depending on pitch count before saving him for the postseason. It’ll be up to the Giants to score in those next couple of innings to get the win, but the Dodgers’ bullpen does have the best cumulative ERA in the sport.
Bank on San Francisco’s offense floundering as it has most of the last couple months while the Dodgers manage to score enough against Suarez and a struggling Giants bullpen, even with a number of youngsters likely seeing at bats in place of some of the Dodgers’ best.
MLB Odds: Dodgers 5, Giants 2
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