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ODDS ANALYSIS
Going back to the 2013 season, the Dodgers have comfortably held the upper hand in their rivalry with the Cubs. During that stretch, Los Angeles has come out on top in 13 of the 20 overall confrontations, and it hasn’t mattered where the teams have played with LA also going a money-making 13-7 in its last 20 visits to the corner of Sheffield and Addison.
That said, Chicago pulled a bit closer last season in dropping just four of the seven overall games played. They’ll be out for revenge here however after Los Angeles went into Wrigley and took two of three limiting Chicago to a grand total of five runs through the three-game set.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Kenta Maeda bolted out to a fabulous start to his major league career in April by logging wins in three of his first four starts and opening eyes with his ability to rack up strikeouts and limit free passes. But now that there’s a book on his stuff, major league hitters have adjusted and the output hasn’t been nearly as good.
Through five May starts, the Japanese import has gone 1-2 with an inflated 5.04 ERA. While his K rate has remained on par, his walk rate has swelled to 3.96 and he’s more or less turned into a five inning pitcher having only once gone through the six inning this month.
With Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester holding the fort on top of the Cubs’ rotation, the forgotten arm in the equation is almost always Kyle Hendricks. Due to receiving just 3.0 runs of support per start, he’ll enter his tenth of the season just 3-4 overall but don’t for one second read much into that record. The kids allowing just 6.9 hits per nine innings and his walk rate per nine has also been solid at 1.96.
While not a strikeout artist, he’s still racked up 45 through 55.1 total innings of work. The Dodgers have been at their best versus righties to date, but they’ll have their work cut out for them should Hendricks not feel the effects of his longest stint last time out in which he went the full nine in a win against the Phillies.
LIVE BETTING
Chicago has only dropped six games in front of the hometown faithful all season. Though MLB bettors have been forced to pony up huge amounts of green to ride the wave, the Cubs have still produced $432 worth of betting profit which is saying something considering they routinely go off the board as better than 2-1 chalk every passing game.
Hendricks has been at his absolute best within the “Friendly Confines” of Wrigley Field, so if you’re looking for a discount in backing Chicago, rolling with Hendricks through the first five might just be your best bet.
QUICK PICK
After going through three grueling games the previous three days, both of these teams are going to be thrilled to close this series out. With that the case, expect to see both Dave Roberts and Joe Maddon start some of their back-ups to give the regular a breather.
With some big boppers omitted from each batting order, look for the starters and bullpens to rule the day in this afternoon delight. Maeda has conceded just 4 ER in day games, while Hendricks owns a 3.33 ERA and 1.07 WHIP under the sun.
Look for a low scorer to play out in the finale.
MLB Odds: Cubs 3, Dodgers 2
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