Just six months ago the Astros celebrated their first playoff win since 2005 on the Yankee Stadium diamond, blanking the pinstripes 3-0 in the AL Wild Card game. In a rematch of starting pitchers from that game, the Yanks look for their revenge.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Astros stunned a lot of people last season with their rise to relevance after years of being the AL’s doormat. After three successive 100-loss seasons, dropping 92 games in 2014 was a sign that the rebuild the team underwent was working. But a playoff berth and near division title was something no one expected so soon. After leading the AL West for most of the year, the Astros did falter a bit down the stretch, eventually losing the division by two games to Texas.
But that didn’t scare the oddsmakers, who pegged the Astros as the favorite at +116 to win their first division crown since taking the NL Central in 2001. Houston is also the favorite among AL teams to win the World Series at +1255. It’s hard to ignore the wealth of young talent the Astros possess, but several players overachieved in 2015 and the road back to the postseason won’t be so easy when there’s a target on your back.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Dallas Keuchel was brilliant last season winning the AL Cy Young Award. He won 20 of his 33 starts and compiled a 2.48 ERA with 216 strikeouts across 232 innings. His home/road splits were a little funky, however. In 15 road starts in 2015, Keuchel was 5-8 with a 3.77 ERA.
The lefty enjoyed plenty of success against the Yankees in 2015. He pitched 16 scoreless frames against them during the regular season then blanked New York over six innings to pick up the win in the Wild Card game.
Masahiro Tanaka gets the Opening Day nod for the Yankees. The righty was 12-7 with a 3.51 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 2015 but he tossed only 154.0 innings due to a right elbow injury.
It wasn’t the cleanest of springs for Tanaka and his elbow seems to be a ticking time bomb, but he’s apparently the best option on a suspect rotation entering the season.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“We like our bullpen and the length that it has. You lose one, someone has to step up. You lose two and you’re asking a lot.” – Yankees manager Joe Girardi
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Tanaka threw one complete game last season and averaged 6.1 innings per start, and being the first game of the year, don’t expect many innings out of him. More troubling for the Yankees is their bullpen, which looked formidable when spring training began, could be thinned out by Opening Day. Closer Andrew Miller sustained a chip fracture in his wrist on Wednesday after getting drilled by a line drive. He was taking over for Aroldis Chapman, the new closer who was slapped with a 30-game suspension. Another member of the bullpen, Bryan Mitchell, who won a spot with a superb spring, injured his toe.
PROP TALK
Dallas Keuchel really enjoyed facing the Yankees last season. In three starts, including the Wild Card game, he gave up zero runs, zip, zilch, nada, in 22 innings. He fanned 28 hitters and issued just a pair of free passes for a 0.64 WHIP. The Yankees never sniffed home plate against him. And in those three games, the Astros outscored the Yanks 22-1. Keuchel enters the opener on a bit of a roll, too. He pitched 17 scoreless innings this spring giving up seven hits and striking out 16.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Keuchel’s Cy Young Award winning season was a few years in the making and the guy rivals Clayton Kershaw as the best lefty in the business. He sure gave the Yankees the business last season, tossing 22 scoreless innings across three starts, including a masterful performance in the Wild Card game. The Astros possess some of the best young talent in the game making them the favorite in the AL, but it’s a different ball game when you enter the season with a target. Houston came out of nowhere last season and surprised the baseball world. The Yankees’ rotation is full of holes and Tanaka, despite a strong showing in his final spring game, is not the hurler he was. Keuchel gives the Astros a chance to win every time he takes the hill, and they get the opener.
Houston 6, New York 2
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