
The Colorado Rockies have had a rough road trip on the East Coast. They're just 1-4 in their first five games on the roadie, and they'll finish it all up on Thursday night in the final game of a three-game set against the Boston Red Sox.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Red Sox have been one of the better teams in baseball for bettors this year. They're up 7.00 units on the season coming into this series against Colorado, and they've already won three of their first four games in Interleague play.
Boston won't have the issue of losing the DH with this series being played at Fenway, and that will keep the hot-hitting David Ortiz in the lineup.
On this road trip to date, the Rockies have been underdogs of +120, +108, +182, +123 and +151, and this is going to be yet another game in which they're massive pups.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Jon Gray had a few really good starts in a row to start May, but he was blown up in his last outing against the Cardinals. The big righty allowed nine runs in just 3.1 innings of work, the fourth time in his last seven starts in which he's conceded at least five runs.
Gray has a great K/9 of 10.97, but his ERA is 6.75, and he's really had problems with men on base. With runners on this year, men are hitting .357 against him. When runners are in scoring position, his batting average against is .381. Foes are slugging .571 against Gray when he's got at a man on at least second base.
Clay Buchholz has really been saved by the Boston bats this year. Normally speaking, a man with a 5.92 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a K/BB of 35/24 in 51.2 innings would be getting a pitcher kicked out of the rotation. Buchholz though, is 2-4, and he's led the Sox to wins in three of his last four starts.
LIVE BETTING
The real issue the Rockies are going to have in this game is finding easy innings to get through. Just look up and down this lineup. Five of the starters are batting at least .300. Seven of the eight men with at least 100 plate appearances are slugging at least .450, and all seven we just mentioned have on OPS of at least .800.
There's just no other lineup in baseball which has a lineup anywhere near this good. David Ortiz feels like he's 83 years old at this point, and he's got an offensive score of 16.1 per FanGraphs, one of the highest marks in baseball. Jackie Bradley Jr. is on a 27-game hitting streak heading into this series.
Sure, Boston's lineup has slowed down just a bit over the course of the last week or so, but it's still averaging 5.82 runs per game. As a team, the Red Sox are batting .296 with a .844 OPS. Live betting against this team is really is tough to do, especially with a pitcher like Gray on the mound.
QUICK PICK
The Rockies have never historically been all that strong on the road in recent years, and this is about as tough of a spot as it gets. It's their last game of an eight-game road trip over nine days, and they were put off schedule with their Sunday rainout in Pittsburgh. The last thing they're going to want to do it get up for this game before heading back home to play the Giants.
The chalk here is going to be pretty tough to take, especially with Gray on the mound. He's already been a +167 dog against the Giants this season, and last year when he was matched up with Clayton Kershaw, he was +318.
Buchholz isn't a trustable pitcher for the most part, but the Red Sox are clearly the right play here against a Colorado team which played its first 40 games or so over its head.
MLB Odds: Red Sox 7, Rockies 4
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