Cleveland was in the race for a wild card playoff spot until the very end last season, missing out by 4.5 games. Going 11 games under .500 against AL Central opponents didn’t help and their seven wins against last-place Detroit all but sealed another playoff-less season.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Finishing a six-game homestand against the Mets and Mariners with a 2-4 record isn’t the way the Indians wanted to enter a showdown with AL Central rival Detroit. While most teams are battling division opponents at the start of the season, the Indians have played just two division games, splitting a pair with the White Sox in the first week of the year.
Now the Indians must go to Comerica Park and play the team has owned them since Terry Francona became manager in 2013. If Cleveland is going to contend for a division title, they must win in the AL Central. Last year, the Tribe went 32-42 in the Central and didn’t have a winning record against one division foe. It will be hard to reverse that trend against the Tigers, who are 37-19 against the Indians in the last three years.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Cleveland’s Carlos Carrasco (2-0, 2.79 ERA) picked up a win on Tuesday when he limited Seattle to one run over 6.1 innings. The big righty kept the M’s off the board until a solo home run in the sixth, and finished with five strikeouts, four hits and three walks.
After giving up four runs and three home runs in his first start, Carrasco has now allowed only one run in each of his last two outings. He hasn’t had a lot of success against the Tigers in his career, posting a 4-6 record and 6.29 ERA over 58.2 innings.
Shane Greene (1-1, 7.15 ERA) has battled with command of his pitches in both starts this season. The struggles never relented in his last outing, resulting in four walks over 4.1 innings along with six hits and seven runs on Tuesday as Detroit lost to Kansas City.
Greene didn’t give up any home runs but was touched for three doubles as the Royals hit him hard. His control issues were a factor. He threw just 10 first pitch strikes to 23 batters and only 49 of his 85 pitches were in the strike zone. He threw well in his first start, but Tuesday’s disaster left him with a lofty ERA.
LIVE BETTING
A trademark of a Terry Francona team is a strong bullpen. The Indians manager loves to use his relievers, and has a reputation of being a master handler of his relief corps. That makes the performance of the Indians’ pen thus far very troubling. Entering the week, Cleveland relievers had a 5.54 ERA, the second-highest bullpen ERA in the AL.
The troubles surround setup man Bryan Shaw, one of the most dependable relievers in the majors over the last three years. His importance to the pen cannot be overstated as the eighth inning bridge to closer Cody Allen. He’s a big reason why Allen has 58 saves over the last two years, but he’s struggled in his early appearances this season. In six games his ERA is 17.36 and opponents are hitting .391 against him.
QUICK PICK
The Tigers finished last in the Central in 2015, but still went 11-7 against the Indians. Detroit’s success against Cleveland over the past three seasons is alarming and something the Tribe must overcome. In fact, the Indians haven’t had much success within the division for the past two years and didn’t have a winning record against any AL Central foe last season.
Throwing Carrasco at the Tigers on Sunday gives them a good shot. The burly right-hander hasn’t had much success against Detroit in his career, so we can safely say he’s due for a good outing.
MLB Odds: Cleveland 4, Detroit 3
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