The Cincinnati Reds had themselves a tough season in 2015. Bryan Price enters the season on an incredibly hot seat after winning just 140 games in his first two years on the job at the Great American Ballpark, but it's tough to see him ultimately doing enough to contend for a postseason spot in the most difficult division in baseball on paper heading into 2016.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Odds to Win the World Series: +16000
Odds to Win the NL Pennant: +7415
Odds to Win the NL Central: +5796
Regular Season Win Total: 70.5 Games
The Reds have an incredibly long season in front of them. They're only expected to win around 70 games this season, and it's tough to find any justifications for why they're better than they were last year when they went just 64-98.
What's worse for Cincinnati is that it plays in a division where the Cardinals, Pirates and Cubs all won at least 97 games a year ago, and there's a good chance that all three get to at least 90 victories again this year.
The only positive on the schedule? At least the Brewers are on the docket 19 times.
LOOKING AT THE LINEUP
Billy Hamilton stole 57 bases last year, and he proved that he ultimately has staying power at the big league level as a leadoff hitter. That said, there's not a lot of speed elsewhere in this lineup, and we're not all that sure there's too much power to speak of either.
Joey Votto did hit 29 homers last season, but he's now coming up on 33 years old, and that's usually the downside of the career for sluggers. Todd Frazier has moved on to the south side of Chicago, and replacing him is Eugenio Suarez. Though Suarez did hit .280 last year in limited playing time, he strikes out a ton, never walks and isn't really a power hitter.
He'll likely bat towards the bottom of the lineup, but he's a big downgrade to Frazier at the keystone for sure.
PITCHING STAFF PROFILE
The Reds set a record last season by ending the year with 64 straight games started by rookies. The good news is that rookies become second-year players, and second-year players ultimately become veterans, but that takes time, and Price doesn't have a lot of that on his side.
Anthony DeSclafani is the only man who threw even 140 innings for this team last year. He started off well by allowing three runs in his first four starts, but after that, his ERA was up near 4.50, and that isn't what you want to see out of a top of the rotation pitcher.
Homer Bailey is going to miss at least the first month of the season after his return from Tommy John surgery last year, and his return could be crucial for this rotation. We just don't see the combination of Raisel Iglesias, Brandon Finnegan, Jon Moscot, Robert Stephenson and Alfredo Simon doing the job.
As far as the bullpen goes, trading Aroldis Chapman surely won't help. J.J. Hoover is likely the first man who will get a crack at closing for the Reds this year, though we'd guess eventually, Tony Cingrani will get a chance to do some closing now that he's been transitioned into a full-time reliever.
THE 2016 SEASON WILL BE A SUCCESS IF…
… The Reds can get some production out of the back of their rotation this year. They scored an average of just 3.95 runs per game last year, No. 26 in the league, and losing Frazier surely isn't going to help matters any from that perspective. There will be plenty of games where DeSclafani does the job, but beyond him and perhaps Bailey when he returns, someone else will have to step up in this rotation.
Iglesias is the man we're really watching out for. Sure, he only went 3-7 last year, but he also struck out 104 men in just 95.1 innings of work, including three games with at least 10 strikeouts down the stretch of last season.
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