Yankees versus Red Sox is always a fun game and these two teams will kick off their final series head-to-head of the year on Tuesday with the Sox looking to clinch the AL East and New York looking for payback.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Boston is the hottest team in baseball right now, winning 10 straight games while highlighting its strong offense, solid starting pitching and very good bullpen throughout the streak.
That hot streak began with the Red Sox winning four straight at home against the Yankees, to improve to 11-5 against them this year. Boston will want to extend that success into Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees have been fading since the series in Boston. After losing all four, the team did win back-to-back games against the Rays, but have now lost four straight after losing on Sunday.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Based solely on names, this is a mismatch with David Price on the bump for the Red Sox against the Yankees’ Luis Cessa.
The stats generally back up that gut reaction, too, though while Price has pitched very well in the last couple months, he did have an exception against New York, allowing five runs on nine hits in six innings the last time he faced him. Granted, Boston still managed to win that game.
Overall, the Sox have won each of Price’s last nine starts while the Yankees have dropped three straight starts made by Cessa.
Price is finally starting to pitch like himself and the Boston lineup and bullpen are strong enough to make that stand up. The veteran southpaw is good for seven innings of two-run ball on most nights. Look for him to deliver something similar to that on Tuesday.
While the lefty is pitching to a 3.91 ERA this year, his WHIP is still very low at 1.175 his strike out numbers are over one per inning and his FIP is at 3.38, right along with his 3.22 career mark. He’s also 17-8.
As for Cessa, the young 24-year old rookie has been forced into the rotation due to injury and has been lackluster. He’s provided some good starts, but has been prone to the home run of late. He’s allowed 15 of them in just 58.2 innings of work. That’s a hard number to ignore, particularly against an offensive juggernaut like Boston.
The last time Cessa pitched against Boston he did okay, allowing three runs in five innings, but that couldn’t stand up for the win and will be hard to be enough against Price whose likely to fair much better this time than he did last time against New York.
Overall, Cessa is just 4-3 with a 4.30 ERA and low strike out totals. That’s fine for a back of the rotation arm, but it’s not enough against a strong offense like Boston when you’ve got to match pitches with David Price.
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Is Gary Sanchez human and if so, is he the reincarnation of Babe Ruth? Those seem like silly questions until you realize the rookie catcher has been on an unprecedented pace with 19 home runs and 38 RBIs in just 47 games. He’s also batting .322.
The Jays did figure out how to shut him down, finally, on Sunday as he went 0-for-4 with a couple strike outs.
Even if Sanchez continues his inexplicable start on Tuesday, the Yankees don’t have the depth in the lineup to make that much of an impact. They’ve scored the fewest runs in the league here in the month of September while Boston has averaged 5.6 runs per game in their 10 game winning streak.
The Yankees look for Sanchez to carry them. The Red Sox have David Ortiz setting records in his final season, smashing 37 home runs and 124 RBIs as of Sunday. Then, there’s MVP contender Mookie Betts with speed and power. There’s also Hanley Ramirez, Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr. all with at least 20 home runs and an OBP of at least .350. Ortiz and Betts both also fit into that category.
QUICK PICK
Cessa, Tyler Clippard and Adam Warren are no match for the Red Sox’s deep, deep offense. They can score in plenty of different ways and will show a number of them on Tuesday. By the time Dellin Betances would normally start warming, this game should be out of reach for New York.
Look for Price to pitch as he has over his last couple months: like an ace, giving the team seven strong innings and then count on the Boston bullpen to close the door. Between Koji Uehara, Brad Ziegler and Craig Kimbrel, there are more than enough closer-quality arms to wrap this thing up.
MLB Odds: Red Sox 8, Yankees 3
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