The Sox dropped their final game of the season to the Blue Jays, meaning their postseason schedule begin on the road in Cleveland against an injury depleted Indians team looking to surprise.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Cleveland’s season began with plenty of hope riding on the shoulders of a stacked rotation. That rotation is mostly done with Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco on the disabled list. Now, the team’s overachieving offense and quality bullpen will need to get them past, arguably, the best team in the American League despite the final record.
Head to head, the Red Sox beat the Indians in four of their six meetings. Boston also closed out their season on a 19-10 run.
A trip up at the end of the year could hurt as the Red Sox started losing steam after the clinched the division. They’ll need to show they can restart the jets and get back to the form that won 11 straight games prior to that, but the team does have the starting pitching, bullpen and offense to take on anyone.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Rick Porcello could be the front runner for the AL Cy Young Award and he gets the nod in Game 1 ahead of David Price who was brought in for just this situation in the offseason.
The 27-year old right-hander has been a serviceable starter in the big leagues since 2009, but he’s finally come into his own with a league leading 22 wins propping up his Cy Young credentials: 22-4 record, 3.15 ERA and 1.009 WHIP in 223 innings.
Porcello also leads the league in strikeout to walk ratio at 5.91 as he’s limited the free passes and shown the ability to get the big strikeout when he needs to get out of trouble. He, however, relies more on the opposition putting the ball weakly in play, giving him the opportunity to go deep into ball games.
His overall numbers are strong, but the righty lasted just 5.2 innings in his only start against Cleveland. He didn’t go deep in the game, but he did give up just two runs in the game.
What makes Porcello most dangerous for the Indians is he’s actually gotten better as the season’s progressed. He was 11-2 in the first half and the second half, but posted a 3.66 ERA in the first half compared to a 2.62 mark in the second half.
Porcello’s also been very consistent. He’s recorded 13 start quality starts dating back to July 29 through his last two starts barely qualify with him going just over six innings with three runs allowed.
To counter Porcello, the Indians aren’t going with their best. They’re saving Corey Kluber for Game 2 and sending Trevor Bauer to the bump on Thursday.
Bauer actually started the year in the bullpen, but injuries have elevated to the No. 2 status in the rotation. He was okay this year, going 12-8 with a 4.26 ERA, but he’s still prone to allowing too many base runners with a 1.311 WHIP and 3.3 walks per nine innings.
Bauer snapped a four game streak of poor performances in his final start, allowing just three runs in four innings in a 6-3 win over Kansas City on Saturday.
In two appearances against the Red Sox this year, Bauer has allowed six runs in six innings of work.
LIVE BETTING
Offense is where the Red Sox and Indians strengths both lie. Boston has outscored the rest of the league this year and has a stacked lineup, but Cleveland’s offense has been deceptively good, too.
The catcher position in Cleveland has been a black hole on offense, but otherwise, the team has a solid offensive contributor top to bottom. Rajai Davis is the only other possible exception, but he does at least give the team additional speed. He’s also lost playing time to Brandon Guyer and Coco Crisp.
What also makes this offense dangerous is the lack of dependency on power. Sure, Mike Napoli and Carlos Santana each have 34 homers, but others like Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez and even Tyler Naquin offer OBP and some gap power that can lead to long innings.
For Boston, the story is similar, but with more power and more depth.
It’s never a bad sign when a team has two MVP candidates like Mookie Betts and David Ortiz. And on top of these two, there’s another big RBI bat in Hanley Ramirez, huge OBP production from Dustin Pedroia and all around excellence from Xander Bogaerts.
On another interesting twist, this series also features both Napoli and manager Terry Francona going against a former team.
QUICK PICK
Cleveland is a better team than people realize, but they’re wounded and that Red Sox should take advantage.
The Indians have the advantage in the bullpen with the versatile Andrew Miller and Cody Allen closing things out, but the starting pitching favors Boston and that could nullify the bullpen edge.
Look for the Indians to come up short in matching up with Boston’s offense with Bauer unable to hold the Red Sox done while Porcello continues to offer at least a quality start as he has now for months.
I’d take Cleveland’s pen over the Red Sox’s, but Boston’s bullpen is still nothing to sneeze at and plenty good enough to slam the door for a Game 1 victory.
MLB Odds: Red Sox 7, Indians 4
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