The Red Sox signed David Price to strengthen the team’s biggest weakness from the past two last place finishes in the AL East. His addition immediately made Boston a favorite in the junior circuit. He puts his nearly quarter of a billion dollar contract to use Monday against the Tribe.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
After helping to lead the Toronto Blue Jays to their first AL East division title since 1993, Price signed with the Red Sox in the offseason, a move that contributed to Boston’s rapid climb up the odds to win the 2016 World Series.
Boston is coming off a disappointing campaign in 2015, winning just 78 games to finish dead last in the division for a second straight season. However, optimism is high in Red Sox camp with the return of starter Clay Buchholz and the addition of closer Craig Kimbrel, who joined the club via trade in November.
That optimism contributed to Boston’s strong position on the AL East odds, alongside the Blue Jays. Boston is at +188 while Toronto is the favorite at +181. The Red Sox are also among the favorites to win the 2016 AL pennant at +685, just behind Houston at +585 and Toronto at +620.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Price starts his Red Sox career by making his fifth Opening Day start. The lefty helped Toronto to the AL East title last season going 9-1 with a 2.30 ERA in his 11 starts after being acquired from Detroit.
Price combined to go 18-5 and led the AL with a 2.45 ERA last season. He is also 4-0 with a 2.15 ERA in six career starts at Progressive Field.
After a breakout season in 2014 in which he won the AL Cy Young Award, Corey Kluber went 9-16 last season, partly due to poor run support. He logged 222 innings with 245 strikeouts and a 3.49 ERA.
Kluber is lights out in his home park with a 2.91 ERA and 360 strikeouts over 349.1 innings of his 55 games – 52 starts – at Progressive Field.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“This will be the first time I’ve done it on the road, so that will be a little bit different. But that mound is still 60 feet, six inches from the plate on opening day.” – Red Sox pitcher David Price on starting Monday’s season opener.
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One game in particular last season may have cost Price a Cy Young Award. On a snowy April 22 evening in Detroit, Price gave up more runs than he got outs in a loss to the Yankees. It was easily his worst outing of the year allowing 10 hits, eight earned runs and three walks in just 2.1 innings of work. Why do we mention that game you ask? Well, when Price takes the mound Monday in his first start as a member of the Red Sox, temperatures are expected to be around freezing in Cleveland. Of course that could change by Monday and all this talk about Price’s struggles in the cold will be moot. But if not, the conditions are definitely something to watch for when Price takes the bump.
PROP TALK
Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts had a breakout season in 2015 and became one of the league’s best shortstops. He led all AL shortstops in batting by 50 points, and he ranked first among those same players in runs, hits, double, RBIs and on-base percentage. He won his first Silver Slugger award as a result. Bogaerts was a valuable run producer for the Sox last season hitting .386/.442/.586 in 77 plate appearances with two outs and runners in scoring position. He also led the majors with 10 hits, including six for extra bases, and 26 RBIs in 27 plate appearances with the bases loaded.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
During the early part of the season, hitters usually have the upper hand over pitchers. This game figures to be an exception with two of the top pitchers in the AL squaring off. Both Price and Kluber were exceptional during the spring and while it’s different when the lights come on, both have been here before. The Indians elected to hold onto their collection of arms rather than make a deal to upgrade the lineup during the offseason. It’s a move that could haunt them. The lack of run production was a problem last season, leading to a disappointing result and no significant changes were made. On top of that, Price is unbeatable in Cleveland. No, he really is. Price is 4-0 with a 2.15 ERA in six career starts at Progressive Field. The weather will likely prove challenging to both sides, but Price faces a much weaker lineup than what Kluber has to deal with.
Boston 3, Cleveland 2
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