The Red Sox get a chance at the division leading Red Sox in four straight at home and will need to make a dent in the standings during that time, including in the pivotal third game on Wednesday night.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Last week saw these two teams meet up, too, with the Orioles winning the three game set in Fenway.
Baltimore got crushed in the series opener, 12-2, but followed that up with a 6-3 win and 1-0 shutout. Overall, the Sox outscored the O’s 15-9, but its wins that count.
With their series win last week, the O’s enter this final series of the year against Boston with a 8-7 lead in the season series, though much of that came from beating the Sox on the road. Boston’s actually owned the Orioles at Camden Yards.
Both teams should have plenty of motivation coming into this game, but only the Orioles should be truly desperate given the standings.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
The Orioles choose to give Wade Miley the start on Sunday despite his struggles to line up Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausman, Ubaldo Jimenez and Chris Tillman to go against Boston. Right now, those would be the team’s four postseason starters should they make the playoffs.
The surprising inclusion in that list of four figures to get the start on Wednesday: Jimenez.
Jimenez looked like he had one foot out of Baltimore earlier this season when Buck Showalter banished the underachieving veteran to the bullpen and called upon him only for mop up situations.
The 32-year old right-hander is just 7-11 with a 5.94 ERA this year and his 1.611 WHIP shows those numbers may actually be a bit generous given how he’s pitched in the early going this season. Still, his disappearance into the depths of the pen allowed him to rework his overly complex delivery and that’s helped.
Since rejoining the rotation on August 25, Jimenez has thrown five solid starts including four quality starts and one complete game. In those five games, he’s gone 2-1 and the O’s have gone 4-1. He’s also allowed just 13 runs in 35.2 innings. That’s a 3.28 ERA.
Similarly, the Sox are turning to a beleaguered starter of their own in Clay Buchholz. Much like Jimenez, he too was banished to the pen and has come back a more reliable pitcher.
All in all, his 7-10 record and 5.20 ERA are reminiscent of Jimenez’s inflated stats although he did allow fewer base runners.
Since coming back to the rotation here in September, Buchholz has thrown two quality starts and one clunker. In his last start, he went six strong against the Yankees.
He’s always shown up against Baltimore. He’s got a career 10-7 record against them with a 3.90 ERA and 1.372 WHIP in 22 games. Going back to his rookie year, he tossed a no-hitter against the Birds.
LIVE BETTING
When pundits talk about the Orioles the criticism usually focuses on their rotation, but that’s not the only flaw for this team.
Baltimore does have depth issues in the rotation, but the lauded bullpen has been iffy of late, too. Sure, Zach Britton is as dominant as ever, but setup man Darren O’Day has just recently returned from the disabled list and is being eased back in. All-star Brad Brach did an admirable job most of the year filling in as the primary set up man, but he’s shown signs of fatigue and has left the ball out of the plate a few too many times over his last handful of appearances.
Others like Mychal Givens and Donny Hart are doing well, but they’re matchup guys that have defined splits and the Sox have a deep lineup that can combat that from either side of the plate.
Another issue with the O’s is the offense. Sure, this lineup has more power than anybody else, leading the way in home runs by a healthy margin, but they get well over half of their runs on the home run and cannot be counted on to manufacture runs. This team doesn’t bunt and doesn’t steal bases. If you are an all or nothing team, a pitcher can shut you down if he can make his pitches consistently.
On the other side, the Red Sox are a much more diverse lineup. Sure they’ve got home run power from David Ortiz, Mookie Betts and Hanley Ramirez, but they’ve also got speed in Betts and Xander Bogaerts. Meanwhile, they constantly have runners on base as they’re ten deep with players with a .350 OBP or better.
QUICK PICK
This is an interesting matchup as the Orioles are much better team at home against everyone other than the Red Sox. I look for the O’s to be plenty motivated for this series and the pitching matchup is rather balanced. This should be a fun game to watch and should go down to the wire. Look for plenty of runs given these offenses.
Jimenez has thrown the ball well, but he was hittable in the first couple innings last game before buckling down. He’s also Ubaldo Jimenez and the magic fairy dust that’s turned him into a serviceable starter the last few games could run out and any time.
The same could be said for Buchholz, and we’ve seen him crash in burn the time before last. Given the more diverse Sox offense, however, you have to go with them as being the more reliable bet to get the win. Take the over for the run total and bank on the Sox to win, though look for a very close game. Whoever has the lead going into the night will be victorious with Britton or Craig Kimbrel slamming the door shut for their respective team.
MLB Odds: Red Sox 7, Orioles 6
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