After 19 head-to-head meetings this year, the 20th is for all the marbles with the Jays and Orioles ready to go head-to-head for the right to advance and take on the Rangers.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
These are two teams that know each other very well and faced each other in Toronto less than a week ago.
In that three game series, the Orioles won two out of three, but they did drop the series opener. In this matchup, there is no second or third game.
Having played 19 times, the Jays have the 10-9 edge against the O’s which grants them the home field advantage. That’s huge as each team has a winning record against the other at home. Baltimore also has very severe home/road splits, going 50-31 at home, but just 39-42 on the road.
This O’s team has been better on the road of late, however, winning each of its last five road series against the likes of Toronto, Detroit and Boston.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
It looks as though the Orioles will turn to their ace, Chris Tillman, to lead them to the Promised Land while Toronto, forced to spend Cy Young hopefuls J.A. Happ and Aaron Sanchez over the weekend, will throw Marcus Stroman, hoping that his performance last postseason is indicative of what’s to come this year.
The young right-hander didn’t have the season the Jays were hoping for, but certainly still have the stuff to pitch like a top of the rotation arm. He earned John Gibbons’ confidence over David Price last post season, but he ended the 2016 regular season with a 9-10 record, 4.37 ERA and 1.289 WHIP in 204 innings of work.
He did pitch better as the season progressed, with a 3.68 ERA in the second half compared to a 4.89 mark in the first half, but he was still just 2-6 after the break. He also struggled in four starts against the Orioles this, year, going 1-2 with a 6.04 ERA and 1.609 WHIP in 23 innings.
In his last start, Stroman faced the Orioles, allowing four runs and nine hits in seven innings of work though he did avoid the home run against Baltimore which is quite the accomplishment. With the O’s so reliant on the long ball, that’s an important factor to consider.
Meanwhile, Chris Tillman is the O’s to lead over Toronto in his last start on September 28, tossing 5.2 innings and allowing two runs, one earned.
Tillman’s overall numbers are very strong. He’s 16-6 with a 3.77 ERA in his 30 starts. He’s also posted a 3.63 ERA in four starts against the Jays spread over 22.1 innings.
While the numbers paint the picture of a reliable starter, he doesn’t come without his question marks and he’s prone to a bad outing. He’ll undoubtedly have a short leash if he doesn’t look on his game. That’s possible, too, his second to last start ended in the second after allowing five hits and three runs in 1.2 innings.
LIVE BETTING
The Orioles have fared better against right-handers than southpaws offensively which makes the selection of Stroman to start on Tuesday interesting considering Francisco Liriano was also available and coming off a better outing against the O’s.
As noted above, the Orioles live and die by the home run. They rank in the middle of the pack in runs scored, but have out homered every other team in baseball by at last 28 bombs.
Watch to see how well Stroman can execute his pitches. Teams like Baltimore are dangerous if you make too many mistakes, but they can be pitched to. The offense has very little speed, stealing just 19 bases all year. The addition of Michael Bourn helps that a bit, but they don’t have the bats to put the ball in play and force the defense’s hand.
On the other side of the field, Toronto is a bit more versatile on offense which could come in handy. Baltimore, however, will still have plenty of chances to drive the ball even if Stroman has a nice start given the Jay’s bullpen’s recent issues.
Toronto’s bullpen wasn’t bad this year, but closer Roberto Osuna hasn’t been as dominant in the last month of the year. Jason Grilli hasn’t either while Joaquin Benoit’s injury leaves Joe Biagini as the primary setup man.
QUICK PICK
We’ve got two lineups ripe with power, particularly the Orioles that led baseball in home runs. In the post season, however, teams need to be able manufacture runs, something the O’s have really struggled doing.
With the Jays at home, where they’ve beaten the Orioles head-to-head this year, they have the upper hand, but the O’s handled Stroman pretty well last week and this whole season.
With both teams having a good idea of what to expect from the other and each manager playing the game with a must-win, all-hands-on-deck mentality, this game could go either way, but look for the Orioles to pull out the upset victory on the road. After all, the O’s did take two out of three in Toronto last week and have one of the game’s best managers. Buck Showalter is masterful at handling a bullpen and the Orioles have plenty of quality arms back there so they won’t be as dependent on Tillman going deep.
MLB Odds: Orioles 6, Blue Jays 5
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