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With the division gone, the O’s and Jays now have to look forward to a Wild Card showdown with this series very likely a preview. Baltimore hasn’t had an answer for Toronto.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Jays have outscored the O’s 90-73 in their 16 head-to-head games, though the Orioles have at least managed to win seven of them.
Toronto’s won the last two series and has home field advantage. The Rogers Centre has provide plenty of challenges for Baltimore over the years. Road games in general have been a problem this year with the O’s five games under-.500 on the road.
Nevertheless, there’s a bit of momentum for Baltimore. After a demoralizing four-game sweep at the hands of Boston, the Orioles bounced back to sweep the Diamondbacks over the weekend. Toronto though had a good weekend showing against New York, but will not have the same rest as the O’s as they close out their series against the Yankees on Monday during the Orioles’ off day.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Both the Orioles and Blue Jays will give the ball to a pitcher that’s been inconsistent this year, but pitching pretty well right now as Ubaldo Jimenez and Francisco Liriano face-off.
Jimenez is 7-12 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.607 WHIP in 28 games, including 24 starts, this year, but those numbers don’t tell the whole story. The veteran right-hander was absolutely atrocious early, but six solid outings since returning to the rotation.
In those six starts, the Orioles are 4-2 though Jimenez has only been credited with two of those wins. He’s also pitched to a 3.51 ERA and gave up three runs in 6.2 innings against the Jays.
Jimenez is one of those pitchers with excellent movement, but terrible command. He’s also got a very involved delivery that often gets out of synch. When he’s able to keep balanced, he’s still able to get results based on that movement, but when he’s off, he is really bad.
Toronto’s seen the good and the bad Ubaldo. He did reasonable well against them when things were working, but in four games, spanning 14.1 innings, he’s allowed 15 total runs and 20 hits against the Jays.
As for Liriano, he’s pitched to a 4.88 ERA and 8-13 record in his 30 games in the majors this year, but since the trade from the Pirates to Toronto, he’s 2-2 with a 3.35 ERA in nine games, including seven starts.
In general, walks and home runs are issue for Liriano and his FIP is elevated over his ERA numbers as a result. Since coming to Toronto, he’s maintained his 1.5 home run per nine innings ratio, though his walks have dropped considerable. Still, overall he’s walking 4.8 per nine innings this year.
Liriano is coming off an excellent start, going six shutout innings against the Yankees, but has a career 5.01 ERA in eight starts against Baltimore.
LIVE BETTING
Liriano’s numbers against the Orioles aren’t impressive, but southpaws have given the Orioles fits this year.
They’ve started giving at bats to newly recalled rookie Trey Mancini against lefties with Steve Pearce injured and he’s provided a bit of a spark. In 12 plate appearances, Mancini has collected five hits, including a double and three home runs and has added a walk.
Look for Mancini to be in the lineup again on Wednesday along with the cast of usual characters like Adam Jones, Manny Machado and Chris Davis.
Those Orioles thumpers will have to exploit Liriano’s tendency to allow the homer. That’s how the O’s score their runs. They’ve blasted 245 home runs with six different players hitting at least 22 home runs and Machado, Davis and Mark Trumbo all hitting at least 36.
You can count on homers in Baltimore, but you can also count on strikeouts, low OBP numbers and no steals, making this team a dangerous one if you’re off your game, but a lineup that can be shut down if a pitcher can make his pitches.
On the flip side, the Jays are a more balanced offense. The hitters were slumping some, but things are starting to come around. We’re finally seeing Jose Bautista come around after an injury-plagued year. If he returns to form along with Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion this becomes the same lineup that blew away the competition last year outscoring everyone by a considerable margin.
Against Toronto, Jimenez has little room for error, but if he can get the O’s six strong, he can turn the ball over to a stacked back end of the bullpen with Darren O’Day, Brad Brach and Zach Britton, not even mention match up options like Mychal Givens and Donnie Hart.
QUICK PICK
On the mound, these teams are similar for the first part of the game, but the advantage shifts to Baltimore after that. Roberto Osuna’s shown some struggles over the last month, while Britton has allowed just four earned runs all year long and is 46-for-46 in save chances.
The Jays are too good at the plate to but shutdown, however. Look for Toronto to get to Jimenez even with him throwing the ball relatively well. The Jays should be able to get four or five on the board. After that, it’s up to Baltimore to match. The O’s should hit the ball hard a few times, but they’ll need the ball to go out of the yard with men on base.
In general, look for a close game, but the O’s offense has been below average since June and isn’t able to manufacture runs well enough to be trusted.
MLB Odds: Blue Jays 5, Orioles 4
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