The last series to get under way, the Cubs will host the Giants in primetime on Friday night as the odds on favorite to win the World Series get the postseason started against a team that—based on record—is the worst one still standing, at least the worst in the second half.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Cubs are 40-17 since the start of August and lead baseball with their 103-58 record. They’ve got a .704 winning percentage at home and have dominated the opposition with a staggering 252 run differential, scoring 808 runs and allowing just 556.
Based on those numbers, the argument could be made that Chicago actually underperformed given their Pythagorean record of 107-54.
Interestingly, the Giants actually had the better record of these two teams at the All-Star break, then San Francisco collapsed.
A very late season pushed helped propel them into the Wild Card game and they’re hoping the improved bullpen over the last week and their postseason success under Bruce Bochy helps them confront the Cubs as the division series round’s biggest underdog.
A huge win off a ninth inning home run and shutout pitching performance two days prior doesn’t hurt either.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
When you have four 15-game winners and three starters with an ERA no higher than 3.10 it’s hard to go wrong when selecting a Game 1 starter. For this series, Joe Maddon gives the nod to veteran southpaw Jon Lester.
Brought in to be the top dog last year, he’s been overshadowed in successive seasons by Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks developing into aces in their own right, but Lester is the one with the postseason pedigree.
The 32-year old southpaw has appeared in 16 postseason games, making 14 starts and pitching to a 2.85 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in 98 innings.
Those are great numbers, almost as strong as his 2016 season stats where he went 19-5 with a 2.44 ERA and 1.016 WHIP over 202.2 innings. His winning percentage was the highest in the league and four time All-Star did a great job limiting base runners and providing consistently strong outings.
That said, he did struggle in his last start. He allowed five runs in five innings to the Reds, snapping a streak of eight straight games of at least six innings and no more than a single run allowed. He also snapped a streak of 11 straight quality starts.
Lester has made two starts against the Giants this year and in those starts, he allowed six runs in 11.2 innings, giving up a pair of home runs. It is important to note that most of that damage game in his first half start back in May when the Giants were on fire. More recently, in September, he held San Fran to a single run in a complete game victory.
While the Cubs have a plethora of aces to choose from for this start, the Giants will turn to Johnny Cueto after Madison Bumgarner took the mound in the Wild Card game.
Cueto came with some questions when he signed in the offseason. He was inconsistent with the Royals last year and while he did pitch a couple remarkable games in the postseason—including one against the Mets in the World Series—he also had some major struggles in other starts.
This year, Cueto has been remarkably strong and rather consistent. He ended the year with an 18-5 record and five complete games including two shutouts. That’s an important note given the collapse of the Giants’ bullpen in the second half.
In addition to the record, Cueto’s season also includes a 2.79 ERA, 1.093 WHIP and an All-Star game start.
Cueto has been good at forcing hitters to earn their way on base by limiting walks and has only given up 15 home runs in 219.2 innings, giving him a nice edge against a high OBP and powerful Cubs order.
Head-to-head, the former Cincinnati Red has plenty of experience against the Cubs. He’s 9-8 in his career with a 3.24 ERA and 1.193 WHIP in 24 starts. As a member of the Giants, he faced them on September 4 and gave up one run on five hits in seven innings, but San Fran ended up losing that game.
LIVE BETTING
The pitching matchup of Lester versus Cueto is a nice one to watch, but otherwise the matchups the rest of the way around the diamond lean heavily in favor of the home team.
Offensively, the Giants’ bats have slowed in the second half. A late surge at the end helped a bit, but they still scored just 291 runs since the All-Star break, the third fewest in the NL.
In typical Giants postseason form, San Francisco got a heroic moment from an unexpected source in the Wild Card game with Conor Gillaspie going deep. San Fran has seemingly gotten often in each of their World Series runs since 2010. If that continues to happen again the Giants could surprise, but the Cubs are the much better offense.
Chicago has the NL MVP favorite in Kris Bryant along with Anthony Rizzo who each have 30 bombs and 100 RBIs. By comparison, the Giants’ leading home run hitter was Brandon Belt with 17. He also led the team in RBIs with 82. Four Cubs have hit more homers than Belt and three have more RBIs.
QUICK PICK
Straight up, pick the Cubs. Chicago has the better offense, the better bullpen and home field advantage. They’ve got the confidence and they’ve got a creative manager that can matchup against a Hall of Fame caliber skipper like Bochy.
Everything is coming up Cubbies for sure, but don’t underestimate the Giants. This team has found a way to win three of the last five World Series and is back in the postseason in an attempt to make another even-year run.
Keep an eye on the run total and the spread as there may be some money to be made there. Chicago should win, yes, but the Giants aren’t a push over team and while their second half swoon was epic, we cannot ignore this Giants team won four straight to end the season, looked to have fixed its bullpen issues with Sergio Romo back in the closer role and has plenty of momentum off a Wild Card win. Meanwhile, we could see a rust factor for Chicago early in the game given they haven’t played since the weekend.
As for the total runs, look for this game to be a low scoring affair behind Lester and Cueto with the Cubs bats a bit slow to heat up.
MLB Odds: Cubs 4, Giants 2
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