The best record in the American League earns the Rangers the chance to host the Wild Card in the ALDS. Texas will try to take advantage of the extra rest, but the Blue Jays are amped up after an emotional extra-innings Wild Card win. Can they carry that energy and momentum into Texas on Thursday afternoon?
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Rangers are playing the Wild Card team, but Texas hasn’t dominated the Jays in their season series, losing 3-4. Texas also entered the postseason with back-to-back losses in their final series of the year against the Rays.
Texas will need to get back on track after the brief letdown, but that shouldn’t be hard now that the postseason is here. Globe Life Park will be rocking and the Rangers thrive at home, going 53-28 at home. Though that doesn’t really matter too much for the Jays who were 43-38 on the road.
Of course, the Jays also did win in Toronto to advance to the Division Series in an 11 inning showdown.
The pitching matchup still matters though and momentum is only as good as the next day starter. That’s how the saying goes and while not necessarily completely true, it does hold weight and the Rangers do have a good pitcher on the bump.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
The Rangers have already decided who will start for them in Game 1 of the ALDS, but have yet to announce who will get the ball.
Texas has two solid options in left-hander Cole Hamels and right-hander Yu Darvish, both aces in their own right and they allow Jeff Banister to have great options in both Game 1 and Game 2.
Hamels has been the go-to guy all season long and likely gets the nod over Darvish who missed the first part of the year rehabbing from Tommy John.
Hamels is 15-5 with a 3.32 ERA in 32 games. He’s given the team plenty of quality innings, going 200.2 innings this season. While those are great numbers, there is some reason for concern. Hamels does have an inflated 1.306 WHIP thanks to 3.5 walks per nine innings. He’s also given up 24 home runs, something he’ll need to avoid against a powerful Jays lineup.
He’s allowed five home runs over his last five games, but his team is undefeated in his last four starts despite a rocky six-run performance against Oakland. Still, his last two starts were quality starts where he combined to allow three runs in 14 innings.
As for the Jays, they used Marcus Stroman and Francisco Liriano in the Wild Card game. Aaron Sanchez started the game on Sunday and is unlikely to come back on short rest.
That would leave Cy Young contender J.A. Happ as the likely starter, making the start on regular rest.
Happ came into his own last year after being dealt to Pittsburgh and the left-hander hasn’t looked back. He went 20-4 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.169 WHIP on the year. He also tossed 195 innings in 32 starts. The southpaw has allowed two runs or fewer in five straight outings and has only given up more than three twice since June.
In Happ’s only start against Texas this year, he allowed one run in seven innings, giving up six hits and walking one.
LIVE BETTING
The Rangers are the kings of the one-run game. They’re an AL best 95-67, but have a run differential of just eight runs, scoring 765 and allowing 757. By comparison, the Jays’ differential is 93 runs and that’s low, too, compared to the other playoff teams.
Texas is 36-11 in one run games. That’s typically a sign of a dominant bullpen, but the success of the Rangers in close games is more attributable to their offense. They’ve got a knack at getting to the opposing bullpen which could be troublesome for a Jays team that’s has seen some bullpen struggles over the course of the last month. Despite that, the bullpen came through in Wild Card game.
Texas’ bullpen is better than the stats would indicate, too. Sam Dyson has been a solid closer since taking over the role early in the year. Guys like Tony Barnette gives Jeff Banister options leading to his closer, too.
On the Jays’ end of things, their team is driven by a dominant offense, but that offense hasn’t clicked down the stretch, but it did enough on Tuesday night. Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion each had huge performances and as the heart and soul of this offense, that’s a dangerous sign for those backing Texas.
QUICK PICK
The Rangers are at home, well rested and will feature an All-Star hurler on the mound. They’re the best team in the league in one-run games and they have one of the best postseason hitters in the sports in Carlos Beltran.
It would appear all the stars are aligned for the Rangers in the series opener, but Toronto has a brilliant Wild Card game win they can build on. They’re also not likely to be as rusty as Texas who had to use workouts and simulations to stay fresh after last playing on Sunday. That’s a long break in a sport where you play every day.
Despite the break, the Rangers still stack up favorable in this series opener. Look for the Rangers to win this one on pitching.
MLB Odds: Rangers 6, Blue Jays 4
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