The Kansas City Royals (52-34, $1,685) and Chicago White Sox (41-45, -$471) will kick off the second half with a bang, playing a double header on the first day back. It’s a battle between first place and last place in the division, so the Royals have the edge, but that edge becomes even bigger given their deeper bullpen.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Royals have taken four of the six games between these two teams so far this year, but it is the White Sox who have won each of the last two.
Both teams were on a bit of a roll heading into the break with Kansas City winning seven of their last eight while Chicago took nine of their last 12 as they inch closer to the .500 mark.
All in all, the Sox are actually a pretty solid team at home, going 23-17 while the Royals are one game worse on the road, going 22-18.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Unlike the Sox, the Royals have already announced their starting rotation out of the break with Chris Young getting the ball in Game 2 Friday night.
Originally considered a luxury, Young was signed in the offseason as the team’s sixth starter, but the insurance policy paid off as Young has actually been one of the team’s better arms.
The 36-year old right-hander has been a strong veteran presence since joining the rotation, posting a 7-5 record with a 3.00 ERA and 1.023 WHIP in his 87 innings of work—mostly as a starter.
He did allow three runs in his last outing, going six innings against the Blue Jays. While he still recorded the quality start, he pitched better than those numbers indicate as one swing of the bat did him in.
On the other side, Chicago has yet to announce their starting rotation out of the break, but Jeff Samardzija is likely to start one of the games. The delay in announcing a starter was due to Chris Sale who was at the All-Star game, but did not pitch. Since he is well rested, he may go in the other game.
If Sale goes, it may be a loss for the Royals. Sale is 8-4 with a 2.72 ERA and 0.947 WHIP over his 119 1/3 innings of work. The young southpaw is absolutely filthy with 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s been nearly unhittable of late, striking out 10 or more in 10 of his last 12 games. Since May 12, his ERA is 1.76.
As for Samardzija, the “Shark” hasn’t been as good as advertised this season with a 4.02 ERA and 1.2221 WHIP through his 125 1/3 innings of work. He has however been a workhorse all year, but it has only been recently that he has begun pitching as a top of the rotation arm.
QUOTE TO NOTE
Despite a loss to close out the first half, White Sox’s manager Robin Ventura was positive about his team’s recent run, saying:
“We played well the last two weeks. We had a good run at it going into the break. We played well, we pitched well, we played defense and scored some runs when we needed to.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
Even over the last couple weeks when the Sox have been playing better ball, the offense has still been disappointing.
Ventura notes they have been getting some runs when needed, but they are still not exactly coming in bunches as Chicago is dead last in all of baseball and the only team to have scored fewer than 300 runs so far this year (292). Of course, the Sox have played fewer games than any other team with just 86, but are still averaging the second fewest runs per game at 3.4.
The Royals, meanwhile, are averaging 4.42 runs per game, sixth most in baseball.
The Sox’s overall offensive numbers are not surprising considering their individual numbers. It’s hard to score when you have one player producing above league average. Jose Abreu is the only player with an OPS over .701. His currently sits at .835 as he is batting .296 with 14 home runs. Meanwhile, the team has three players with at least 150 at bats and an OPS below .575.
On the other side, Kansas City has depth. The team has five active players on the roster with an OPS+ of at least 100. Even with Alex Gordon out, they have viable replacements in Paulo Orlando who hit the game winning home run on Sunday and Jarrod Dyson who brings speed to the table with 11 steals in just 121 plate appearances.
PROP TALK
Abreu has just one at bat against Young so there is no real sample size to play off of there, but Adam LaRoche has had more than his share of at bats. LaRoche is second on the team in OPS at .701, but you should stay clear of him in this one as he is just 4 for 30 against Young with eight strike outs.
Instead, look to Melky Cabrera as a possible prop bet candidate. The outfielder has had a lackluster season, but is 4 for 6 against Young with three extra base hits.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Should the ball go to Sale in this one, I am going with the White Sox; otherwise, the Royals have the edge with the superior offense, defense and bullpen with a cumulative ERA of 2.18. Considering Young’s solid performances as a starter as well, the only thing that could stop KC is Sale.
Kansas City 5, Chicago 4
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Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! First pitch for the game between the Kansas City Royals and Chicago White Sox is scheduled for Friday, July 17, 2015, at 8:10 p.m. ET at U.S. Cellular Field. You can watch the contest live on the MLB Network.
