The Cleveland Indians (38-44, -$1,520) wrap up their four game series against the AL West leading Houston Astros (49-36, $1,089) on Thursday night looking to build upon something going into the break.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Over the weekend, the Astros dropped a three game set against the Boston Red Sox. Despite that, they’ve still been successful winning six of 10 games thanks to a four game split with the Yankees and three game sweep over Kansas City.
In the opener of their series against Cleveland, Houston won 9-4 to extend the Indians’ losing streak to three.
With the win the Astros are now 21-20 on the road, a far cry from their 28-16 record at home.
The Indians will aim to take advantage of playing in Cleveland after a long road trip, though they’re much worse at home, going just 15-24 despite being over .500 on the road.
In their only other series against each other this year, the Indians took two of three.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Twenty-four year old rookie right-hander Cody Anderson gets the start for the Indians in this series finale against the Astros.
Anderson has been lights out since his promotion. In three starts, he’s allowed just two runs in 23 2/3 innings for a 0.76 ERA. Perhaps even more impressive, has been his control. He’s walked just one batter and has forced a lot of weak contact while striking out just 10. With only 14 hits allowed overall, his WHIP is 0.634.
Of course, with all that contact, FIP does project some regression as his FIP is listed at 2.91. Moving forward, some of those hits are going to find holes.
Even so, his performance has gotten the notice from people across the league. It will be interesting to see how he does as the book on him gets out.
In the minors this year, Anderson split time between Double-A Akron and Triple-A Columbus combining for a 1.89 ERA in 13 starts with a 1.051 WHIP. In the minors his walk rate was way down as well with just 1.8 per nine innings. He was, however, striking out 6.8 per nine in the minors, three more than in the majors.
Opposite the rookie phenom is the Astro’s now veteran right-hander Collin McHugh. The 28-year old is in his fourth season in the majors and has a solid 9-4 record, though his ERA is a bit high at 4.54.
In 107 innings of work, McHugh has a 1.299 WHIP and has struck out 85 batters.
In his last outing, McHugh lasted just five and a third innings, allowing three runs to the Red Sox, but had thrown three straight quality starts prior to that, going eight innings in back-to-back starts and combining to allow just three runs in those 16 innings.
QUOTE TO NOTE
After his last start, manager Terry Francona spoke about his rookie pitcher and you could tell he was impressed, Anderson may be getting a bit lucky, but he is that good. Francona said:
“I was every bit impressed with him today as I was before. He’s got the downhill plane, and off that changeup, that really seems to be giving hitters fits. He mixes in that cutter—that’s probably the pitch he still needs the biggest work on. That’s where they took their better swings, but man, I’m king of nitpicking. The guy goes eight innings and gives up one.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
The Astros have scored the second most runs in all of baseball this year with 388 plated thanks to an MLB best 120 home runs and an improved OBP and average.
The team’s average is just .244, but that is up over the last month or so, helping provide more versatility to the offense.
In fact, in their 9-4 win over Cleveland in the series opener, none of the big boppers hit it out, though they did still get two home runs from lesser names including Preston Tucker and Marwin Gonzalez, showing they can get power up and down the lineup.
All in all, the loss of George Springer (.822 OPS) to injury is a big blow, but the team still has plenty of offense to go around with Jose Altuve (.348 OBP), Carlos Correa (.905 OPS) and three players with at least 14 long balls.
On the other side, the Indians rank No. 20 in runs scored and have a bit of inconsistency at a number of different positions.
Michael Brantley (.770 OPS) has put up solid numbers after breaking out last year, but has lost his power with just four home runs. Brandon Moss, meanwhile, provides 14 homers, but is hitting just .232. The only real certainty in the lineup is Jason Kipnis at the top with his .340 average and .919 OPS. The team is particularly lost at short and third.
PROP TALK
McHugh has made two career starts against the Indians, lasting 12 innings and allowing just two earned runs and 13 hits.
Interestingly, Michael Bourn has probably had the most success against McHugh of any of his teammates, going 3 for 7 with two RBIs. On the year, he has a miniscule .587 OPS, but is 6 for his last 15.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Houston has the better offense and the better bullpen with a 2.71 cumulative ERA, but the Indians have the upper hand on the mound to start the game as Anderson has been on fire. Still, he lacks experience so the league is bound to catch up to him sooner rather than later.
McHugh, on the other hand, has more experience and has been solid of late. I look for him to keep the Astros in the game, allowing his offense and the bullpen to take care of the rest.
Houston 5, Cleveland 4
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