The All-Star break represents the midway point in the 2015 Major League Baseball season, though every team has played more than 81 games, which is the official half way mark. We’ve also had a look at some first half surprises and disappointments and will take a look at the biggest movers from projected win totals at the start of the season.
BookMaker Sportsbook offers multiple types of futures wagering for myriad sports. These bets have a long-term settle date. You can gamble on regular season win totals, division winners, American and National League pennant winners and the World Series winner.
Payouts for futures bets are usually better than even, or greater than +100, so the amount staked is much less than the potential payout. Of course, the inherent risk of futures betting is the unknown of the future.
BookMaker posts adjusted futures odds for regular season wins, division winners, American League and National League pennant winners and World Series every day of the season.
SURPRISES
If you wagered on the Royals to exceed their projected win total of 79.5 before the season started, good for you. You are about to cash in. Kansas City wasn’t given much love after a surprising run to the World Series in 2014 with many considering what the Royals accomplished a fluke. But as beloved announcer Keith Jackson would say, Whoa Nellie. KC is the only American League team to win at least 50 games (52) at the All-Star break and another 28 wins in the second half will cash those preseason bets.
The Royals are on pace for a 97-win season and the adjusted total is going up along with it. Their rotation is shaky and sparkplug Alex Gordon is out with an injury so don’t look for this team to reach 97, but if they just split their remaining 76 games that puts them at 90 wins. With an adjusted win total around 90, the Royals are still a good bet to reach the over.
The Houston Astros haven’t posted a winning record since 2008. In fact, the team lost at least 92 games in each of the last four seasons. In three of those four the club piled up more than 100 losses. For those reasons alone the Astros have to be viewed as the biggest surprise of 2015.
Houston improved 19 games from 2013 to 2014, going from 51 wins to 70. Their preseason 75.5 projected total in 2015 seemed a bit high but this club is loaded with young talent. Still, taking that step from 70 to 75 is a tough one. They hit the All-Star break with 49 wins and that’s after losing six straight. The Astros have hurdles to climb in the second half of the season, but getting to 80 wins should be a lock for them.
The Minnesota Twins are a factor right now, which has not only stunned baseball fans but should be making the Kansas City Royals a little uncomfortable. The Twins haven’t won more than 70 games in a season since 2010 which is why their projected total at the start of the season was 71.5, but the club has been solid getting 49 victories at the break.
What makes the Twins scary for the second half is the reinforcements they’re getting. They already have all-universe prospect Miguel Sano in the lineup and starter Ervin Santana returned before the break to bolster their rotation. They are on pace for 89 wins but unlikely to get that high. They are, however, a .500 club and could top out at 85.
DISAPPOINTMENTS
The American League Central was thought to be the toughest division in baseball and the Minnesota Twins would be bringing up the rear. That hasn’t worked out at the halfway point. Chicago and Cleveland both underwhelmed in the first half finishing four games below .500 and are on pace to finish well below their projected win totals. Chicago had to go on a tear leading into the break just to get 41 wins and with their inept offensive numbers, reaching their total of 82.5 wins is a longshot. The Indians will have a tough time reaching their total of 84.5 wins and both clubs could be in sell mode come deadline time if the second half gets off to a rough start.
The Washington Nationals added the biggest free agent prize in the offseason, signing ace Max Scherzer to a deal. He joined a loaded rotation that made the Nats World Series favorites and had some predicting they would reach 100 wins. The crazy thing about sports is you never can predict injuries and the Nats have been hit hard in the first half. They entered the All-Star break with 48 wins, which is off the mark for their projected total of 93 but still somewhat surprising given what they dealt with. With all their injured players due to return at some point in the second half of the season, the Nats would be a smart play on the over if their adjusted total drops to the high-80s.
It’s possible that no team was expected to improve from last season more than the San Diego Padres. Those expectations came as a result of their radical offseason makeover that brought in Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, James Shields, Craig Kimbrel and Derek Norris, among others. A team that hadn’t won more than 77 games in any of the previous four seasons had a projected win total of 84.5 at the beginning of the season. After a promising start, the team tip toed into the break with 41 wins putting them on pace for 74. There are too many holes in this club to recover from and a .500 season is most likely out of the question.
The only way to make a risk-free profit betting futures is to own a crystal ball or build a time machine. But futures betting is a season-long source of entertainment. Even if you’ve lost interest in the baseball odds you can follow your futures wager until the last day of the season.
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