This series shifts to Fenway and the Red Sox have quite the challenge ahead of them and it all starts with a win in Game 3 at home.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Boston clinched their division with some time to spare and then went on a skid, dropping three straight to New York and two of three to close the year against Toronto.
That weak finish has continued as the Red Sox offense has sputtered and David Ortiz finds himself potentially suiting up for Boston for the final time Sunday afternoon.
The Indians have a different story, sweeping their series finale and have now won five straight games despite a depleted rotation. It’s the offense and bullpen that’s carried a bigger portion of the load.
Cleveland now finds itself up two game to none and while they’re unlikely to let up, particularly with Terry Francona looking to stick it to his former team, they’re also unlikely to pull out all the stops, jeopardizing the team’s position for tomorrow, to simply play another day.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Clay Buchholz is 8-10 with a 4.78 ERA and lost his spot in the rotation in the middle of the season. Those are not what you want out of a starter that carries the fate of the entire season on his shoulders.
Of course, the full season numbers for any player can be misleading when you’re looking to anticipate what he’ll do in a single postseason start. It may be more useful to examine Buchholz’s last few starts.
The 32-year old right-hander returned to the rotation in start of September and threw five starts, going 3-0 with a 3.14 ERA. He had just one clunker in those five games, that coming against a powerful Blue Jays roster.
The improved play is positive, but this is still a pitcher with a lifetime ERA of 4.85 against Cleveland in seven starts.
He’s obviously capable of a big start. We’ve seen him dominant for stretches and we’ve seen him look absolutely lost. He’s throwing the ball well right now and he’s got some postseason experience. That’s got to count for something, though his results in the playoffs have been just as mixed as during the regular season.
Buchholz is a huge question mark, but so is Cleveland’s start Josh Tomlin.
Tomlin won’t hurt himself. He leads the league in fewest walks allowed per nine innings and last gave up a walk on August 25. That’s six straight starts without a walk.
It’s important to make the opposition work their way on base, but Tomlin takes it to a near extreme and he doesn’t have the stuff or movement to make it work. Instead, often times the opposition knows to expect the ball in the zone and is hacking early and often. That mentality led to a dismal month of August where Tomlin’s ERA rocketed from 3.43 to 4.89. It’s down to 4.40 now after a strong rebound month in September. His last four starts have all been very good. Cleveland is 3-1 in them and he’s allowed only five runs in 25.2 innings.
LIVE BETTING
Boston’s vaunted offense is what got the Sox to the postseason, but the Indians pitching has shut down that offense early, allowing four runs in the opener and shutting them out in Game 2.
It was Corey Kluber that shut them down in Game 2 along with a pair of relievers, but Andrew Miller and Cody Allen remained in the bullpen after long outings in Game 1. They’ll both be ready to go on Sunday behind Tomlin.
With their season on the line, Boston could be pressing a bit and if that’s the case, Tomlin is just the guy they want on the other side. The Sox will be hacking and Tomlin will be throwing the ball in the zone. That’s a recipe for success.
Cleveland’s offense has shown up in this series scoring 11 runs. They have a better matchup in Game 3, too.
QUICK PICK
The Sox have had success at home and on the road, but they’ve shown they score more at home and it’s the Boston offense that’s really sputtered in the first two against Cleveland.
Boston needs to swing early and often against Tomlin and I think they will. Look for Mookie Betts or David Ortiz to get into one early and get the crowd in the game. If they have Fenway rocking in support and are able to pick up some confidence with an early lead, they can get the win.
Buchholz will give up some runs, but so will Tomlin. This game then becomes a bullpen game. The Sox’s pen is a bit more rested and the Boston offense a bit more dangerous. Boston stays alive for another day with a win in a shootout in Boston.
MLB Odds: Red Sox 8, Cleveland 6
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