The Blue Jays quickly gave themselves a series advantage with a big Game 1 win on the road. Texas now has the pressure on them as they need to avoid hitting the road down 2-0 while the Jays are simply riding a momentum wave following their walk off Wild Card game. These two teams have a short turnaround as they open the action on Friday.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Game 1 wasn’t much of a contest. The Jays clobbered the Rangers 10-1, handling Cole Hamels with ease and shutting down a strong Texas offense.
Toronto jumped out early all the momentum in this series and it’s up to Texas to try and turn the tide early in Game 2. For just that reason, an early game lead is crucial. They cannot go north of the board down two games and their home record indicates they shouldn’t have to, going 53-28 at home in the regular season.
Head-to-head, Toronto’s Game 1 win was their fifth in eight games against the Rangers. They’ve now outscored Texas 46-22 in those eight games.
Toronto also has the clear edge in run differential. Those that favor sabermetrics are flabbergasted at the Rangers’ record. They’ve won tons of one-run games despite a mediocre bullpen based on ERA and that shouldn’t be sustainable.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Marco Estrada got the nod for the Jays in Game 1 leaving Game 2 for the Cy Young hopeful: J.A. Happ.
Happ will be well rested to make this start and is coming off a truly amazing season. The veteran southpaw came into his own with the Pirates last year and carried that into this year, going 20-4 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.169 WHIP. In accumulating those numbers, he tossed 195 innings in 32 starts.
The lefty has been throwing the ball well of late, allowing two runs or fewer in five straight outings and has only given up more than three twice dating all the way back to June.
In Happ’s only start against Texas this year, he allowed one run in seven innings, giving up six hits and walking one.
While Happ is positioned for another good start, the Rangers’ starter will have much more urgency after dropping Game 1 at home. That starter with much of Texas’s season resting on his shoulders is Yu Darvish.
After a bad start by Hamels, the Rangers are fortunate to have yet another ace to take the hill.
After missing last year with Tommy John surgery, Darvish made his comeback in 2016 with 17 very strong starts. Typically, there’s some rust and adjustment after a missed season, but Darvish came back strong and fast, going 7-5 with a 3.41 ERA and a 1.116 WHIP in 100.1 innings pitched.
In his starts, his home run and walk rates were right in line what his career numbers as were his strikeouts, raking up 132 Ks.
Darvish has had a few rough outings, however, much like what we saw from Hamels on Thursday. The most recent one of those came on September 17 against the A’s. In that game, Darvish lasted five innings, allowing seven runs on seven hits, walking four. In two starts since then, however, Darvish tossed 13 innings of one run ball with just five hits allowed and two walks against the A’s and Rays. He struck out 21 in those two games.
Darvish hasn’t faced Toronto this year, but he has had success against them in seven career starts, going 3-2 with a 2.45 ERA.
The right-hander is well positioned for a strong start and that’s just what Texas needs to stay in this series.
LIVE BETTING
The Jays burned a few pitchers in the Wild Card game, but have a rested pen going into Game 2 with Marco Estrada giving the Jays 8.1 innings. The Toronto pen is an area of concern for this team and one that the Rangers will need to exploit. Still, while Roberto Osuna and Jason Grilli had their struggles at the end of the regular season, the Jays pen absolutely shutdown the Orioles on Tuesday.
Texas’ pen surprisingly wasn’t burnt on Thursday. Alex Claudio gave them 3.2 strong innings to save the pen after Toronto knocked Hamels out of the game. That’s huge for the rest of the series, specifically Game 2.
On offense, we’ve see how dangerous the Jays can be, but Texas has a strong offense in its own right. Carlos Beltran specifically has a great postseason career, hitting .332 in the playoffs.
Texas has a deep lineup just like Toronto. They counter Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Donaldson with Ian Desmond, Rougned Odor, Jonathan Lucroy and Adrian Beltre.
QUICK PICK
Texas needs the win on Friday. They cannot go up to the Rogers Centre needing to win three straight games, but the Jays will do their best not to let Texas back in this series.
The pitching matchup is a good one. Happ has pitched very well and so has Darvish, but the pitching matchup looked good in Game 1, too, but didn’t turn out that way, at least for the Rangers.
Darvish is a good pitcher, but the Jays are rolling right now. They’ve got all the momentum and should continue, picking up another road victory unless Texas can do something big early in the game.
I don’t look for that to happen against Happ and with a well-rested pen, John Gibbons can have a relatively short hook for Happ even if he’s not having his best game.
Bank on Toronto to continue riding this wave off their emotional Wild Card win and take Game 2 on the road.
While these two teams have great offenses, the opposing pitchers should be strong enough to keep this score reasonably low, making the under on the run total a strong bet if the total remains elevated heading into the action.
MLB Odds: Rangers 6, Blue Jays 4
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